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Walmart Inc. (WMT) stock analysis

Walmart rebounds sharply in October but still trades about 12% below its high at a premium multiple

Walmart closed at 119.32 on Oct 27, 2026, up 9.74% over the past month after a slide from its April peak, and now sits just above its 200-day average of 118.48. Forward P/E is 36.99 against an industry median of 18.99. Earnings are due Nov 19, 2026, and the last two reports were followed by drops of 8.09% and 9.27%.

  • Price: 119.32
  • Market Cap (USD): $950.86B
  • P/E: 43.43×
  • Fwd P/E: 36.99×
  • Div Yield: 0.82%
  • 1Y Return: 12.39%
  • Next Earnings: Nov 19, 2026
  • Mean Target: 125.89
  • Rating: Strong Buy

Bull case

  • Revenue is growing steadily: trailing twelve-month revenue is $713.16B, with year-over-year growth of 4.73% and 5.60% in the latest quarter, and a streak of 3 quarters of rising revenue.
  • Returns on capital are solid for a retailer: ROIC is 15.11% and ROE is 22.97%, with net debt to EBITDA of 1.21× and interest coverage of 10.66×.
  • Analysts lean positive: 47 Buy, 16 Hold and 3 Sell ratings as of Oct 28, 2026, a mean target of 125.89 (5.51% above the price), and Deutsche Bank upgraded from Hold to Buy on Oct 15, 2026 with a target of 136.

Bear case

  • Valuation is stretched against peers: forward P/E of 36.99 (on next year's consensus EPS of 3.23) sits in the 98th percentile of US Consumer Staples, versus a sector median of 15.65, and free cash flow yield is 1.57%.
  • Cash generation is thin relative to spending: free cash flow of $14.92B is well below operating cash flow of $41.56B because capex is $26.64B, and the net margin is 3.07%.
  • The stock has fallen after the last two earnings reports (-8.09% on May 21, 2026 and -9.27% on Aug 20, 2026) despite EPS beats, and insiders made 14 sales and no buys over the past 90 days, totalling -11.1M net.

What to watch

  • Next earnings on Nov 19, 2026 (confirmed); consensus EPS is 0.638 and the options market implies a 4.94% move.
  • The 200-day average at 118.48, which price sits just above, and the 20-day high of 122.40.
  • The 52-week high of 135.16 (11.72% above the price) and the 52-week low of 98.88.
  • Next ex-dividend date on Dec 11, 2026 for a quarterly dividend of 0.2475.

General

Walmart is a very large retailer with Walmart U.S., Walmart International and Sam's Club divisions. Sales and earnings are growing, and analysts are mostly positive. The shares trade at a large premium to the sector, and the price has been volatile around earnings.

The business

Walmart operates retail, wholesale and e-commerce through supercenters, Sam's Club warehouse clubs and other formats. Walmart U.S. generated $482.98B (68.37% of sales) in fiscal 2026, Walmart International $130.42B and Sam's Club $93.02B. Trailing revenue is $713.16B and EPS is 2.73.

Valuation in context

The trailing P/E is 43.43× and the forward P/E is 36.99× on next year's consensus EPS, against an industry median forward P/E of 18.99×. Price to sales is 1.33×, near the sector median of 1.50×, because margins are thin: operating margin is 4.18%.

Market and analyst signals

The mean analyst target is 125.89 from 25 analysts. The price is 11.72% below its 52-week high of 135.16 after a decline from April, and recovered 9.74% over the past month. A Reuters headline on Oct 28, 2026 reports an FTC data demand on personalized pricing.

Long-term investor

Walmart has compounded sales and EPS over several years, with solid returns on capital and a moderate balance sheet. The long-term case has to weigh that against a valuation far above peers and modest free cash flow after heavy capex.

Growth and margins

Revenue rose from $559.15B in fiscal 2021 to $713.16B in fiscal 2026, a 5-year CAGR of 4.99%. Diluted EPS went from 1.62 to 2.73, and the 3-year EPS CAGR is 24.34%. Operating margin is 4.18%, down 0.13% over the year. Latest quarterly EPS growth was -20.00%.

Balance sheet and cash returns

Total debt is $67.09B against $10.73B of cash, with debt to equity of 0.67×, but the current ratio is 0.79×. In fiscal 2026 Walmart repurchased $8.09B of stock and paid $7.51B of dividends. The dividend yield is 0.82% with 29 years of growth and a 35.81% payout ratio.

Valuation and ownership

Forward P/E of 36.99 and a PEG of 3.17× compare with expected EPS growth of 11.66% next year, in the 81st percentile of the sector. Free cash flow yield of 1.57% is in the 2nd percentile. Institutional ownership is 37.61%, up 1.81% over three months, while insiders sold in 14 transactions over 90 days.

Swing trader

After a death cross on Jul 24, 2026 and a slide to the 103 area, the stock has rallied back to the 200-day average with strong trend readings. Earnings in 23 days are the main event risk, given recent post-earnings drops.

Trend and momentum

Price of 119.32 is above the 20-day average (113.40), 50-day average (109.63) and 200-day average (118.48), which is only 0.71% below. The 50-day average remains 7.47% below the 200-day. RSI is 66.35, ADX is 36.98 and the MACD of 3.23 is above its signal of 2.63.

Recent action and levels

The stock climbed from 108.16 on Oct 7 to 121.12 on Oct 22, and has since eased with Oct 27 volume at 15.7M (0.73× relative volume). Resistance: the 20-day high of 122.40, the upper Bollinger band at 125.35 and the 52-week high of 135.16. Support: 10-day average 118.78, 21-day EMA 114.99.

Risk and catalysts

ATR is 2.40 (2.01% of price). Earnings on Nov 19, 2026 follow moves of -9.27% and -8.09% in the last two reports. Short interest is 0.94% of float as of Oct 15, 2026, down 7.01%. Relative strength rating is 67; 6-month relative strength is -14.66%.

Options

Implied volatility is above realized volatility and in the upper half of its 52-week range, with a backwardated term structure ahead of earnings. Liquidity is excellent, though recent volume is below average.

Volatility level

The 30-day implied volatility is 30.61%, an IV rank of 62 and IV percentile of 75, within a 52-week range of 18.43% to 38.15%. The 30-day historical volatility is 22.98%, so implied is 1.33× realized, a spread of +7.6 points.

Term structure and expected move

IV is 30.61% at 30 days versus 27.31% at 90 days: backwardation, a slope of -3.3 points, consistent with the Nov 19 earnings event. Skew is +1.4 points. The 30-day expected move is 8.78% and the 7-day move 4.24%.

Earnings and premium

The implied earnings move is 4.94% versus an 8-quarter average actual move of 5.56% (0.89× the 4-quarter average) and a maximum of 9.27%. Average IV crush is 17.18%. For Nov 27 expiry, the 115.00 put pays 2.30 (23.55% annualized) and the 126.00 call pays 1.89 (18.65%). Option liquidity score is 100.

Analysis written October 28, 2026 from Qanvo data as of October 27, 2026. AI-generated, for information only; not investment advice.