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Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) stock analysis

Wells Fargo trades near 10x forward earnings, below its 200-day average, after a muted Q3 reaction

Wells Fargo (WFC) closed at 82.67 on Oct 27, 2026, 15.43% below its 52-week high of 97.76 and down 11.29% year to date. Forward P/E is 10.27×, slightly below the industry median of 10.96×, while the mean analyst target of 96.67 sits above the price. Earnings growth and buybacks are positives; the sub-par relative strength and a revenue miss in the latest quarter are the counterweights.

  • Price: 82.67
  • Market Cap (USD): $249.33B
  • P/E: 10.84×
  • Fwd P/E: 10.27×
  • Div Yield: 2.24%
  • 1Y Return: -4.32%
  • Next Earnings: Jan 14, 2027
  • Mean Target: 96.67
  • Rating: Strong Buy

Bull case

  • Trailing EPS growth is 17.43% year over year and 26.26% on a 3-year CAGR, and next fiscal year's EPS growth is forecast at 9.82%.
  • Forward P/E of 10.27× (on next year's consensus EPS of 8.05) is 6.36% below the industry median of 10.96×, with price-to-book at 1.42× and ROE at 12.89%.
  • Shares outstanding fell 5.16% over the past year, and the dividend has grown 15.62% annually over 3 years with a payout ratio of 25.91%; 17 analysts' mean target is 96.67, 16.93% above the price.

Bear case

  • The stock is down 11.29% year to date and 4.32% over one year, with a 1-year relative strength of -18.03% and a relative strength rating of 50 (32nd percentile of US Financials).
  • Q3 revenue surprise was -1.94% and the stock fell 2.90% on Oct 13, 2026; several analysts trimmed targets afterwards, including RBC Capital to 92 from 100 and Goldman Sachs to 94 from 96.
  • Debt-to-equity is 1.26× (64th percentile of peers versus a sector median of 0.77×), and revenue growth of 6.66% sits below the sector median of 7.94%.

What to watch

  • Next earnings on Jan 14, 2027 (confirmed), with consensus EPS of 1.84.
  • The 200-day average at 83.71 and 50-day average at 84.43, both just above the price.
  • The 20-day range of 78.00 to 84.73 and the 52-week low of 72.78.
  • Short interest data after the Oct 15, 2026 reading of 26.7M shares (0.89% of float, up 9.00%).

General

Wells Fargo is a large US bank with four segments, and its shares sit below both the 50-day and 200-day averages. Earnings are growing, valuation is near the industry median, and analysts lean positive. The main questions are revenue momentum and a weak recent price trend.

The business

Per the company profile, Wells Fargo provides diversified banking, investment, mortgage, and consumer and commercial finance services in the US and internationally across four segments. In fiscal 2025, Consumer Banking and Lending made up 43.62% of segment revenue, Corporate and Investment Banking 22.45%, Wealth and Investment Management 19.06% and Commercial Banking 13.99%.

Recent performance

Q3 FY2026 (ended Sep 30, 2026) revenue was 33.26B and diluted EPS 1.87, versus 1.66 a year earlier. EPS beat consensus of 1.85 by 1.08%, but revenue missed by 1.94%. Trailing twelve-month net income is 23.01B with a net margin of 17.64%.

Valuation and analysts

Trailing P/E is 10.84× and forward P/E is 10.27× on next year's consensus EPS, versus an industry median of 10.96×. The dividend yield is 2.24%. The mean target is 96.67 from 17 analysts, labelled Strong Buy by score; a separate Oct 28, 2026 tally shows 28 Buy, 28 Hold and 4 Sell.

Market signals

The stock has lagged: relative strength versus the market is -6.98% over 3 months and -18.03% over a year. Short interest is low at 0.89% of float. Beta over one year is 0.67, though the 3-year beta is 0.95.

Long-term investor

Earnings per share have compounded quickly as the share count shrank, and the valuation is modest relative to growth. Returns are near sector medians rather than superior. Capital return is sizeable, but credit and margin data are missing from this view.

Growth and margins

Revenue grew 6.66% year over year and 13.97% on a 3-year CAGR; EPS grew 26.26% on a 3-year CAGR. Diluted EPS was 6.32 in fiscal 2025 versus 5.37 in 2024. Operating margin is 21.10%, up 1.43% on the year, versus a sector median of 22.18%. Quarterly EPS has ranged from 1.60 to 2.00 over the last four quarters.

Returns and balance sheet

ROE is 12.89% against a sector median of 13.16%, and ROA is 1.07%. Total equity is 175.76B against total assets of 2.25T, and debt-to-equity is 1.26×. Piotroski F-Score is 6. Capital ratios and credit costs, which matter most for banks, are not in the data.

Capital return

Fiscal 2025 buybacks were 17.52B and dividends 5.43B, down from 22.29B and 5.13B in fiscal 2024. Diluted shares fell from 3.47B to 3.22B. The quarterly dividend rose to 0.50 for the Aug 7, 2026 ex-date from 0.45, and the yield is 2.24%.

Valuation, estimates and holders

Forward P/E of 10.27× is in the 43rd percentile of US Financials; price-to-book is 1.42×. Consensus EPS is 7.33 for this year and 8.05 for next. Insiders made no open-market trades in 90 days, only awards and one gift. Institutional ownership is 77.33%, up 4.50% over 3 months.

Swing trader

The stock is range-bound between roughly 78 and 85 with a flat trend: above the 20-day average but below the 50-day and 200-day. Momentum is neutral, trend strength is weak, and the next earnings date is outside a typical swing window.

Trend and momentum

Price of 82.67 is 0.93% above the 20-day average of 81.91, 2.07% below the 50-day at 84.43 and 1.24% below the 200-day at 83.71. RSI is 48.87, ADX is 18.13 (weak trend), and MACD of -0.42 is above its signal of -0.69. The golden cross was Aug 11, 2026.

Recent sessions and levels

After the Oct 13 earnings drop to 80.74, shares recovered to 83.87 on Oct 16 on 32.1M volume, then settled at 82.20 to 83.01 closes. Oct 27 volume of 8.0M was 0.52× average. The 20-day high is 84.73 and low 78.00; the 52-week high is 97.76 and low 72.78.

Volatility and relative strength

The 14-day ATR is 1.86, or 2.25% of price. 30-day historical volatility is 24.92%. The relative strength rating of 50 is in the 32nd percentile of peers, and 3-month relative strength is -6.98%.

Catalysts and positioning

Earnings are 79 days away on Jan 14, 2027. Upgrades in the last 30 days number 2, with no downgrades, though price targets were mostly trimmed in mid-October. Short interest was 26.7M shares (0.89% of float) on Oct 15, 2026, up 9.00%, with 1.54 days to cover.

Options

Implied volatility is low for the past year, with a 52-week IV rank of 17, and is roughly in line with realized volatility. Term structure is in contango and liquidity is strong. Premium is not especially rich, though a small volatility risk premium exists.

Volatility level

30-day IV is 24.93% against a 52-week range of 21.31% to 42.86%, giving an IV rank of 17 and IV percentile of 18, the 6th percentile among sector peers. IV30 has fallen 7.8 points over 20 days. The 30-day IV/HV ratio is 1.00×, and the volatility risk premium is +2.9 points (1.13×).

Term structure and skew

IV rises from 24.93% at 30 days to 25.99% at 60 and 27.26% at 90 days, a contango with a +2.3 point slope. 25-delta skew is +2.6 points at 30 days, indicating a modest put premium. The put/call open interest ratio is 1.61×, and the volume ratio is 0.86×.

Expected moves and earnings

The 30-day expected move is 7.15% (5.91), with an at-the-money straddle at 6.75%. Earnings on Jan 14, 2027 fall after the Nov 27, 2026 expiry. Past earnings moves averaged 3.83% over 4 quarters and 4.48% over 8, with a maximum of 9.55%; the implied move for Oct 13 was 5.56% versus an actual -2.90%.

Premium and liquidity

For the Nov 27 expiry (31 days), the 30-delta put at 80.00 pays 1.32, an annualized cash-secured put yield of 19.43%, with the strike 3.24% below the price. The 30-delta call at 86.00 pays 0.98, a covered-call yield of 13.96%. Liquidity score is 98, but options volume was 0.47× its 20-day average.

Analysis written October 28, 2026 from Qanvo data as of October 27, 2026. AI-generated, for information only; not investment advice.