Stock reports › US › Healthcare

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) stock analysis

UnitedHealth rebounds toward $410 as earnings recover, with margins and growth still below history

UNH closed at 410.39 on Oct 27, 2026, up 24.32% year to date and 34.93% below its all-time high of 630.73. The latest quarter beat consensus EPS by 13.29%, and analysts rate the stock Buy with a mean target of 472.10. Revenue growth is slow, operating margin is 5.32%, and the stock has a history of large earnings-day moves.

  • Price: 410.39
  • Market Cap (USD): $370.18B
  • P/E: 23.30×
  • Fwd P/E: 17.53×
  • Div Yield: 2.21%
  • 1Y Return: 13.21%
  • Next Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
  • Mean Target: 472.10
  • Rating: Buy

Bull case

  • The Oct 13, 2026 report beat consensus EPS by 13.29% (4.69 vs 4.14), the fifth straight EPS beat, and the stock rose 4.52% that day.
  • Free cash flow over the trailing twelve months is $22.83B with a 6.17% FCF yield, in the 69th percentile of US Healthcare. FCF growth is 31.40% year over year.
  • Price is 13.47% above the 200-day average of 361.69, and the 50-day average is above the 200-day since the May 18, 2026 golden cross. The relative strength rating is 84.

Bear case

  • Operating margin is 5.32%, down 0.74% over the year and in the 25th percentile of the sector. Revenue growth of 3.33% year over year is in the 24th percentile.
  • Earnings have fallen over the long run: three-year annualized EPS growth is -14.52% and EPS growth year over year is -8.55%. Annual diluted EPS fell from 23.86 in FY2023 to 13.23 in FY2025.
  • Earnings-day reactions have been severe: -27.30% on Apr 17, 2025 and -16.39% on Jan 27, 2026. Two insider sales were recorded in the last 90 days, with a net value of -660.9K.

What to watch

  • The earnings calendar shows Oct 27, 2026 (before market open, consensus EPS 4.03) as not yet reported, next to the Oct 13 report. The next event after that is Jan 20, 2027 (consensus EPS 2.28).
  • The 20-day high of 426.55 and the 52-week high of 461.62, 72 days ago, are the upside reference levels.
  • The 20-day low of 362.60 and the 200-day average of 361.69 are the key downside support levels.
  • The next quarterly dividend ex-date has not been listed. The last was Sep 14, 2026 at 2.32 per share.

General

UnitedHealth Group provides health care coverage, software and data consultancy through four segments. The stock has recovered from a mid-2025 low but remains far below its peak. Valuation is roughly in line with the sector, analysts are positive, and margins and growth are the open questions.

The business

The company operates through UnitedHealthcare, OptumHealth, OptumInsight and OptumRx, and has 390,000 employees. In FY2025, premiums were 78.70% of revenue ($352.23B of $447.57B). Trailing revenue is $449.66B, with net income of 15.88B and EPS of 17.52.

How it is doing

Quarterly revenue has been flat at around 112B (112.69B in Q3 FY2026). Net income was 4.11B in Q3 versus 2.35B a year earlier. Q4 FY2025 net income was only 10.0M, so the comparison base is weak. Revenue growth was -0.41% year over year in the latest quarter.

Valuation

Forward P/E is 17.53, apparently based on next year's consensus EPS of 23.41 (the fiscal-year-end rule applies). That is at the industry median of 17.53 and in the 49th percentile of US Healthcare. Price-to-sales is 0.82, and the dividend yield is 2.21%.

Analysts and the market

Seventeen analysts give a Buy label with a mean target of 472.10, 15.04% above the price. The consensus shows 43 Buy, 7 Hold and 2 Sell ratings. There were no upgrades or downgrades in 30 days, and Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo reiterated on Oct 27, 2026.

Long-term investor

Over five years revenue has compounded at 11.72%, but earnings have declined since FY2023 and margins have compressed. Returns on capital remain solid, and cash generation and dividend growth are steady. The case depends on margin repair, which consensus EPS growth of 13.77% next fiscal year assumes.

Growth durability

Revenue rose from 257.14B in FY2020 to 447.57B in FY2025, a 3-year CAGR of 11.35%. EPS peaked at 23.86 in FY2023 and was 13.23 in FY2025. Operating income fell from 32.36B to 18.96B over that span. Consensus EPS is 20.58 for the current year and 23.41 for next year.

Margins and returns

Operating margin is 5.32% (25th percentile) and gross margin is 22.81%. ROIC of 12.61% is above the sector median of 10.40%, and ROE is 15.89%. Returns remain decent despite lower margins, helped by asset turnover of 1.43×.

Balance sheet and cash returns

Total debt is 74.33B against 28.55B in cash, giving net debt to EBITDA of 1.64× and interest coverage of 6.21×. The current ratio is 0.74×. FY2025 dividends were 7.92B and buybacks 5.54B, down from 9.00B in FY2024. The dividend has grown for 16 years, and the payout ratio is 51.71%.

Valuation and ownership

Forward P/E of 17.53 matches the industry median, and EV/EBITDA of 14.86 is in the 39th percentile. Institutions hold 88.55%, with ownership up 6.31% over three months. Insiders recorded no buys and two sales in 90 days (net -660.9K).

Swing trader

The trend is up: price is above the 20-, 50- and 200-day averages with strong trend strength and positive momentum. The stock has pulled back about 3.4% from a 426.55 peak on Oct 22, and a 3-day losing streak has formed. Daily range is around 2.69% of price.

Trend and momentum

Price of 410.39 is 4.52% above the 20-day average (392.63), 5.49% above the 50-day (389.04) and 13.47% above the 200-day (361.69). RSI is 59.74, MACD of 9.07 is above its signal of 6.17, and ADX of 35.31 indicates a firm trend. The relative strength rating is 84.

Recent sessions

The stock jumped from 377.76 on Oct 13 (12.7M shares) to 424.98 on Oct 22. It has since slipped to 410.70 and 410.39. Volume on Oct 27 was 3.7M, or 0.66× normal, so the pullback has come on light turnover.

Levels and risk

Resistance sits at the 20-day high of 426.55 and the 52-week high of 461.62. Support sits at the 10-day average of 411.10, the 20-day average and the 20-day low of 362.60. ATR is 11.04 (2.69%), and 30-day historical volatility is 24.82%.

Catalysts and positioning

The calendar is unclear (see data gaps), with Jan 20, 2027 the next clean date. Short interest was 14.0M shares (1.55% of float) on Oct 15, 2026, down 12.18% from the prior reading. Recent analyst actions were all reiterations, with no upgrades or downgrades in 30 days.

Options

Implied volatility is near the bottom of its 52-week range while earnings-day moves have historically been large. Options are liquid, with a put/call ratio below 1. Premium is modest versus realized volatility on one measure and mixed on another.

Volatility level

IV30 is 27.12%, with an IV rank of 6 and IV percentile of 8 against a 52-week range of 25.13% to 55.88%. IV30 has fallen 13.5 points over 20 days. Rank is in the 1st percentile of the sector. IV60 is 28.87% and IV90 is 29.70%, a mild contango (+2.6 pts).

Implied versus realized

IV30 is 2.3 points above 30-day historical volatility of 24.82% (ratio 1.09×). The separate volatility risk premium reads -2.4 pts (0.92×), so signals are mixed rather than clearly rich. Skew is only +0.7 pts at 25 delta, so downside puts are not priced at a large premium.

Expected moves and earnings

The options market implies a 3.76% move over 7 days (15.41) and 7.78% over 30 days (31.91). The implied earnings move shows 0.00% and is unusable. Actual earnings moves averaged 8.00% over four quarters and 9.27% over eight, with a median of 5.95% and a maximum of 27.30%.

Premium yields and liquidity

For the Nov 27, 2026 expiry (31 days), the 30-delta put at 395.00 pays 6.42 (19.14% annualized yield) and the 30-delta call at 430.00 pays 5.50 (15.78%). No ex-dividend date falls before expiry. Open interest is 881.1K and the liquidity score is 99. Volume was 0.56× its 20-day average.

Analysis written October 28, 2026 from Qanvo data as of October 27, 2026. AI-generated, for information only; not investment advice.