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Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO) stock analysis

Thermo Fisher trades near its all-time high after a 47.38% six-month run and a third-quarter beat

TMO closed at 693.02 on Oct 27, 2026, 1.81% below its 705.79 all-time high, after the Oct 21 quarter beat EPS consensus by 4.38%. Growth is back to roughly 8-9% and analyst targets have risen, but the forward P/E of 25.03 on next year's consensus EPS is above the Healthcare median, and insiders have been net sellers.

  • Price: 693.02
  • Market Cap (USD): $256.42B
  • P/E: 36.20×
  • Fwd P/E: 25.03×
  • Div Yield: 0.27%
  • 1Y Return: 21.05%
  • Mean Target: 731.71
  • Rating: Strong Buy

Bull case

  • Third-quarter results on Oct 21, 2026 beat: EPS of 6.68 versus 6.4 consensus (4.38% surprise) and a 1.54% revenue surprise, extending the EPS beat streak to 14.
  • Momentum is strong: the stock is 25.99% above its 200-day average of 550.04, and the 50-day average crossed above the 200-day on Aug 18, 2026.
  • Analysts have lifted targets, including RBC Capital to 730 from 580 and Stifel to 775 from 650 on Oct 22, 2026; the mean target is 731.71 from 15 analysts.

Bear case

  • Valuation is above the sector: forward P/E of 25.03 sits in the 75th percentile of US Healthcare against a median of 17.62, and the PEG is 2.61.
  • Returns on capital are modest: ROIC of 7.47% is in the 32nd percentile of the sector (median 10.40%), and net debt is 3.14 times EBITDA.
  • Insiders recorded 90 sells and no buys over 90 days, with a net value of -54.4M, and the stock fell 1.58% after the last earnings report despite the beat.

What to watch

  • The 52-week and all-time high of 705.79, set 4 days ago, 1.81% above the current price.
  • The 20-day average at 673.09 and the 50-day average at 649.04 as support references.
  • Next ex-dividend date: not in the facts; the last was Sep 15, 2026 at 0.47 per share.
  • Next short interest update after the Oct 15, 2026 reading of 4.9M shares (1.32% of float).

General

Thermo Fisher is a large provider of life sciences solutions, analytical instruments, diagnostics, lab supplies and biopharma services. Revenue growth has recovered to 8.27% year over year and the stock is near record highs. Valuation is above sector norms, so expectations are elevated.

Business and results

The company serves researchers, therapeutic and vaccine makers and diagnostics customers across North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific. Trailing revenue is $47.35B with net income of 7.08B. Q3 FY2026 revenue was 12.14B against 11.12B a year earlier, and diluted EPS was 4.64 versus 4.27.

Valuation in context

Forward P/E is 25.03 on next year's consensus EPS, below the industry median of 27.76 but above the Healthcare median of 17.62. Trailing P/E is 36.20 and free cash flow yield is 2.96%, in the 33rd percentile of the sector.

Analysts and market signals

The consensus label is Buy, with 36 buys, 7 holds and no sells. Mean target 731.71 implies 5.58% upside. Wells Fargo downgraded to Underweight from Overweight on Sep 9, 2026. Short interest is low at 1.32% of float.

Long-term investor

Revenue and EPS have rebuilt after a flat stretch, but the three-year revenue CAGR of -0.27% shows how uneven growth has been. Cash generation is solid and shares are being repurchased, while returns on capital are below peers and valuation is elevated.

Growth durability

Annual revenue rose to 44.56B in FY2025 from 42.88B in FY2024, versus a 2021 peak of 39.21B after a 2022 base of 44.91B. The five-year revenue CAGR is 6.70%, and next year's EPS growth is estimated at 9.60%. Quarterly revenue is up two quarters in a row.

Margins and balance sheet

Operating margin is 17.98%, down 0.54% over a year, while gross margin rose 0.96%. ROIC is 7.47% and ROE 13.39%. Total debt is 41.37B against 54.77B equity, with interest coverage of 5.54 times.

Capital return and ownership

FY2025 buybacks were 3.00B and dividends 636.0M; shares outstanding fell 1.85% over a year. The dividend yield is 0.27% with eight years of growth. Institutions hold 91.40%, but insiders sold 54.4M net over 90 days.

Swing trader

The trend is firmly up with price above all key averages and a relative strength rating of 90. Momentum is cooling slightly with the MACD below its signal line, and price sits close to the 705.79 high.

Trend and momentum

Price of 693.02 is above the 20-day (673.09), 50-day (649.04) and 200-day (550.04) averages. RSI is 60.5, ADX is 31.27 showing a strong trend, and MACD of 11.34 is below its signal of 11.94 (histogram -0.6).

Levels and recent sessions

The 20-day low is 635.32 and the high 705.79, set on Oct 21. The stock closed between 673.82 and 696.49 in the last week, and the Oct 27 session gained 1.19% on 0.73 times relative volume.

Risk and flow

ATR is 20.28, or 2.93% of price, and 20-day historical volatility is 29.69%. Short interest fell 9.63% to 4.9M shares on Oct 15. Analyst actions in October were mostly reiterations with target increases.

Options

Implied volatility of 30.20% sits mid-range in its 52-week band, with an IV rank of 39. Implied volatility is modestly above realized volatility, and no earnings fall before the Nov 27, 2026 expiry.

Volatility level and term structure

IV30 is 30.20%, IV60 30.53% and IV90 31.18%, a mild contango. The 52-week range is 18.74% to 48.12%, with IV percentile at 48. IV30 fell 8.5 points over five days. Skew is +4.2 points at 25 delta.

Implied versus realized

IV30 is 4.5 points above 30-day historical volatility, a ratio of 1.18 times. The volatility risk premium is +0.5 points (1.02 times), so premium is only slightly rich relative to realized volatility.

Expected moves and premium

The 30-day expected move is 8.66% (60.00). Past earnings moves averaged 5.74% over four quarters and peaked at 11.09% over eight. The 30-delta put yields 22.60% annualized and the 30-delta call 10.87%. Liquidity score is 79; put/call volume is 1.87 times.

Analysis written October 28, 2026 from Qanvo data as of October 27, 2026. AI-generated, for information only; not investment advice.