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The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) stock analysis

TD hits a record high at 176.57 after a 55.77% one-year run, with a premium forward multiple

The Toronto-Dominion Bank closed at 176.57 on Oct 27, 2026, within 0.24% of its 52-week and all-time high of 177.00. Earnings have beaten consensus seven quarters in a row, but trailing revenue and EPS are down year over year. The forward P/E of 15.77× sits above the industry median of 10.96×.

  • Price: 176.57
  • Market Cap (USD): $206.71B
  • P/E: 17.95×
  • Fwd P/E: 15.77×
  • Div Yield: 2.49%
  • 1Y Return: 55.77%
  • Next Earnings: Dec 3, 2026
  • Rating: Buy

Bull case

  • Price is 15.51% above the 200-day average of 152.87, and the one-year return of 55.77% ranks in the 100th percentile of Canadian financials versus a sector median of 30.76%.
  • EPS has beaten consensus for 7 straight quarters; the Aug 27, 2026 report showed 2.74 against 2.45 expected, a surprise of 11.84%.
  • Quarterly net income rose from 3.34B in Q3 FY2025 to 4.62B in Q3 FY2026, and consensus EPS growth for next year is 10.64%.

Bear case

  • Valuation is stretched against the industry: forward P/E of 15.77× versus an industry median of 10.96×, and a PEG of 1.48×.
  • Trailing revenue growth is -4.14% (19th percentile of the sector) and operating margin of 17.86% is below the sector median of 20.41%.
  • The stock is extended short term, with RSI(14) at 66.65, a 2-day RSI of 90.74 and a stochastic K of 97.37, while ADX of 16.15 shows a weak trend.

What to watch

  • Next earnings on Dec 3, 2026 (confirmed); consensus EPS is 2.53.
  • The 177.00 level, which is both the 52-week and all-time high and the 20-day high.
  • The 20-day average at 169.49 and the 50-day average at 168.48 as nearby support references.
  • Dividend payment on Oct 31, 2026 of 1.12 per share (ex-dividend date was Oct 9, 2026).

General

TD is a large Canadian-based bank with retail operations in Canada and the U.S. plus a wholesale arm. The shares are at record highs after a strong year and recent earnings beats. Valuation is above the industry median, and trailing revenue and EPS growth are negative.

Business

According to its profile, TD offers deposit accounts, mortgages, vehicle financing, consumer loans, credit cards and payments to individuals, and financing and cash management to businesses. It reports in three divisions: Canadian Retail, U.S. Retail and Wholesale Banking. It has 105,005 employees and a market cap of $206.71B.

Recent performance

Q3 FY2026 revenue was 28.57B and net income 4.62B, with diluted EPS of 2.74. Trailing revenue growth is -4.14% and trailing EPS growth is -20.12%, though quarterly EPS growth is 44.97%. Fiscal 2025 EPS of 11.56 included a very large Q2 FY2025 figure of 6.27, which distorts comparisons.

Valuation and analysts

Trailing P/E is 17.95× and forward P/E 15.77×, in the 68th percentile of Canadian financials against a sector median of 14.36×. Ten analysts give a consensus label of Buy: 9 Buy and 8 Hold ratings, none Sell as of Oct 28, 2026. Dividend yield is 2.49%.

Long-term investor

Multi-year growth is mixed: the 3-year revenue CAGR is 24.91% while 3-year EPS CAGR is 6.87%. Returns are moderate, with ROE of 12.83% and a steadily growing dividend. Buybacks have reduced the share count, but valuation now carries a premium to the industry.

Growth and margins

Revenue growth over 5 years is a 16.23% CAGR, but the latest year is -4.14%. Operating margin of 17.86% is down 2.14% over a year and in the 26th percentile of peers. Annual EPS moved from 9.47 in FY2022 to 4.72 in FY2024 and 11.56 in FY2025, so earnings have been uneven.

Balance sheet and returns

ROE is 12.83% versus a sector median of 13.24%, and ROA is 0.78%. Total equity is 127.02B against total assets of 2.11T, and debt to equity is 2.35× (61st percentile). Bank leverage is structural, and capital ratios are not in the facts.

Capital return

The dividend has grown for 15 years; the quarterly payment rose to 1.12 from 1.05 a year earlier, with a payout ratio of 47.16% and 3-year dividend growth of 5.67%. Shares outstanding fell 3.88% over a year; FY2025 buybacks were 20.84B against 7.66B of dividends.

Valuation and sentiment

Forward P/E of 15.77× compares with an industry median of 10.96×, and price to book is 2.29×. Consensus EPS is 10.12 for this fiscal year and 11.20 for next. No analyst upgrades or downgrades occurred in the last 30 days, and no insider trades were reported in 90 days.

Swing trader

The trend is firmly up, with price above all key averages and at a record high. Momentum is strong but short-term overbought, while trend strength by ADX is low. A pullback toward the 20- and 50-day averages is a reference zone to watch.

Trend and momentum

Price of 176.57 is above the 20-day average of 169.49, the 50-day of 168.48 and the 200-day of 152.87. MACD of 1.97 is above its signal at 0.99. RSI(14) is 66.65 and ADX is 16.15. The relative strength rating is 91, in the 94th percentile of peers.

Recent sessions and levels

The stock climbed from 162.23 on Oct 8 to 176.57 on Oct 27, making a new 52-week high of 177.00 intraday. Volume of 4.6M on Oct 27 was 0.62× the norm, so the latest advance came on light participation. The Bollinger upper band is 177.73 and the lower is 161.25.

Risk and catalysts

ATR(14) is 2.81, or 1.59% of price, and 30-day historical volatility is 18.58%. Earnings are on Dec 3, 2026, and the last four earnings-day moves ranged from -0.06% to 1.69%. The last analyst actions, on Aug 19 and Aug 28, 2026, were all reiterations.

Analysis written October 28, 2026 from Qanvo data as of October 27, 2026. AI-generated, for information only; not investment advice.