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Shopify Inc. (SHOP) stock analysis

Shopify rallies 30% in three months to near record highs ahead of Nov 3 earnings, at a steep valuation

Shopify closed at 232.93 on Oct 27, 2026, 8.99% below its all-time high of 255.95, after a 30.03% three-month gain. Revenue growth of 32.55% and a net cash balance sheet sit alongside a forward P/E of 67.84, versus an industry median of 17.68. Earnings on Nov 3 are the next test.

  • Price: 232.93
  • Market Cap (USD): $214.58B
  • P/E: 110.10×
  • Fwd P/E: 67.84×
  • Div Yield: 0.00%
  • 1Y Return: -3.80%
  • Next Earnings: Nov 3, 2026
  • Rating: Strong Buy

Bull case

  • Revenue grew 32.55% year over year, with the latest quarter at 33.69%, well above the Canadian technology median of 18.55%.
  • Return on invested capital is 22.15%, and free cash flow of 3.31B is a 17.75% margin, with operating margin up 4.32% over the past year.
  • The balance sheet holds 6.96B in cash against 250.3M of debt, and 39 analysts carry a Strong Buy rating score with no downgrades in the last 30 days.

Bear case

  • Forward P/E of 67.84 is in the 91st percentile of Canadian technology peers, against a sector median of 18.20, and the free cash flow yield is only 1.10%.
  • Gross margin of 47.69% is down 1.65% over the year and sits in the 24th percentile of peers.
  • The stock is volatile: beta is 1.95, one-year max drawdown is -47.66%, and the last three earnings moves were 19.04%, -16.78% and -12.74%.

What to watch

  • Next earnings on Nov 3, 2026 (confirmed), with next-quarter consensus EPS of 0.92 in the analyst data.
  • The 20-day average at 234.31, which price sits just below, and the 50-day average at 211.89.
  • The 52-week and all-time high of 255.95, set 9 days ago, and the 20-day low of 202.03.

General

Shopify is a global commerce company whose platform helps merchants sell across online, in-store, social and marketplace channels. Growth and profitability have improved, and the balance sheet is strong. The valuation is high relative to peers, and the stock has been very volatile.

Business and growth

Trailing revenue is 18.66B (about $13.27B), up 32.55% year over year. Q2 FY2026 revenue was 3.58B with operating income of 629.0M. Operating margin is 16.72%, up 4.32% over the year, while gross margin slipped 1.65%.

Valuation in context

Forward P/E is 67.84 against an industry median of 17.68, and price to sales is 16.17, in the 76th percentile of peers. The PEG ratio is 2.29. Next year's consensus EPS growth is 29.58%, which the market is already pricing in.

Analysts and market signals

Consensus is Buy, with 43 Buy, 18 Hold and 3 Sell ratings as of Oct 28, 2026. Citigroup reiterated Buy on Oct 28. Recent price targets, such as Oppenheimer's 205 on Oct 23, were set when the stock traded near 168.81, so they trail the current price of 232.93.

Long-term investor

Shopify has compounded revenue at 28.05% over three years and 32.04% over five, while moving from losses in fiscal 2022 to solid operating profit. Returns on capital are healthy and the balance sheet holds net cash. The valuation is demanding and no cash is returned to shareholders.

Growth durability

Annual revenue rose from 2.93B in fiscal 2020 to 11.76B in fiscal 2025. Operating income went from -822.0M in fiscal 2022 to 1.92B in fiscal 2025. Net income swings widely from quarter to quarter, so operating income and free cash flow are cleaner guides.

Margins, returns and balance sheet

ROIC is 22.15% and ROE is 15.71%, with the ROIC near the sector median of 22.51% and ROE in the 27th percentile. Net debt is -6.71B, debt to equity is 0.01 and the Piotroski F-score is 7. Free cash flow of 3.31B is up 29.66% year over year.

Valuation and capital return

Price to free cash flow is 91.08 and the free cash flow yield is 1.10%, in the 24th percentile of peers. Shares outstanding fell 0.84% over one year, but no buybacks or dividends appear in the annual data. Consensus EPS rises from 2.65 to 3.43 across the next two fiscal years. No insider trades were recorded in the last 90 days.

Swing trader

The trend is firmly up, with price above its 50-day and 200-day averages and a golden cross on Aug 28, 2026. Short-term momentum has cooled after a four-day losing streak, and the price is just below the 20-day average. Earnings on Nov 3 fall inside the window.

Trend and momentum

Price of 232.93 is 9.93% above the 50-day average of 211.89 and 29.24% above the 200-day average of 180.24. The 14-day RSI is 54.7, but the 2-day RSI is 4.47 and the stochastic K is 12.7. The MACD of 8.69 is below its signal line of 10.77, and the ADX of 21.96 suggests a modest trend.

Recent sessions and levels

The stock peaked intraday at 255.95 on Oct 14 and has since slid, with Oct 27 closing at 232.93 on 904.0K shares, 0.46 times relative volume. The 20-day average is 234.31 and the 8-day exponential average is 237.54. The 20-day low is 202.03.

Volatility and catalysts

The 14-day ATR is 10.02, or 4.30% of price, and 20-day historical volatility is 40.36%. The last three earnings moves were 19.04%, -16.78% and -12.74%. Recent analyst actions were all reiterations, and no short interest data is available.

Analysis written October 28, 2026 from Qanvo data as of October 27, 2026. AI-generated, for information only; not investment advice.