Shell plc (SHEL) stock analysis

Shell trades near record highs ahead of Oct 29 earnings, with a low valuation and a forecast EPS decline

Shell closed at 3,927.50 on Oct 27, 2026, 2.68% below its all-time high of 4,035.50 and up 43.34% year to date. Forward P/E is 9.85× and FCF yield is 10.20%, but consensus points to EPS growth of -15.14% next fiscal year. Q3 earnings are due Oct 29, 2026.

Price: 3,927.50
Market Cap (USD): $291.44B
P/E: 11.27×
Fwd P/E: 9.85×
Div Yield: 2.87%
1Y Return: 38.63%
Next Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
Rating: Strong Buy

Bull case

Shares are up 43.34% YTD and 38.63% over 1 year, with an RSRating of 92 and price 20.32% above the 200-day average of 3,264.14.
Valuation is modest: forward P/E is 9.85× against the industry median of 9.76×, EV/EBITDA is 4.92× (8th percentile in GB energy), and FCF yield is 10.20% (84th percentile).
Q2 FY2026 net income was 10.82B with EPS of 1.92, versus 0.57 in Q2 FY2025. The last EPS surprise was 14.66%, and the EPS beat streak is 2.

Bear case

Consensus EPS falls from 469.95 (FY1) to 398.79 (FY2), and EPSGrowthNextFY is -15.14%, 13th percentile in the peer group.
Three-year revenue CAGR is -10.60% and three-year EPS CAGR is -18.77%. Annual revenue fell from 381.31B in 2022 to 272.49B in 2025, so the recent rebound has a short track record.
The price is near a record, with a 53.79% gain from the 52-week low. RSI14 is 63.43 and the stock fell 1.80% on Oct 27 on volume of 0.53× average, so a pullback toward the 20-day average of 3,815.40 is possible.

What to watch

Q3 earnings on Oct 29, 2026 (confirmed). Consensus EPS is 1.36 versus 1.33 reported last quarter.
All-time and 52-week high at 4,035.50, set 2 days ago, and the 20-day low at 3,501.69.
Support from the SMA20 at 3,815.40 and SMA50 at 3,621.82.
The next quarterly dividend. The last ex-date was Aug 13, 2026 at 28.92, and the next date is not in the facts.

General

Shell is a global integrated energy and petrochemical company whose shares have rallied strongly and sit near a record. It looks inexpensive on several measures, and analysts are positive, but forecasts point to lower earnings next year.

Business and results

Shell operates in Integrated Gas, Upstream, Marketing, Chemicals and Products, and Renewables and Energy Solutions, with 84,000 employees. Q2 FY2026 revenue was 94.66B and net income 10.82B, up from 68.20B and 5.57B in Q1. TTM operating margin is 13.37%, up 4.07% over the year.

Valuation and market view

Forward P/E is 9.85× on the FY2 consensus basis, in the 35th percentile of GB energy peers and just above the industry median of 9.76×. Dividend yield is 2.87% with a 33.14% payout ratio. Of the analysts, 4 rate Buy and 1 Hold as of Oct 28, 2026.

Main risks

Consensus EPS drops from 469.95 to 398.79 across the next two fiscal years. The stock rose 18.17% in 3 months, so expectations are higher going into earnings on Oct 29. Gross margin of 17.94% is in the 20th percentile of peers.

Long-term investor

Shell combines solid returns on capital, a moderate balance sheet and large cash returns at a low multiple. The long-term record is uneven, with falling revenue and EPS over three years and further forecast declines.

Growth and returns

Annual revenue was 272.49B in 2025 against 284.31B in 2024 and 381.31B in 2022. EPS diluted was 3.06 in 2025 versus 2.53 in 2024. ROIC is 13.95% (60th percentile) and ROE 14.26% (38th percentile). Piotroski F-Score is 9.

Balance sheet and cash returns

Net debt to EBITDA is 0.62×, debt to equity 0.40× and interest coverage 7.70×. In 2025 Shell repurchased 15.50B of stock and paid 8.65B in dividends. Shares outstanding fell 11.42% over one year. The dividend grew 10.19% over 3 years.

Valuation and estimates

P/E is 11.27×, price to book 1.60× and FCF yield 10.20%, which is cheaper than most GB energy peers on EV/EBITDA. Consensus EPS of 469.95 for FY1 and 398.79 for FY2 implies earnings may have peaked. No insider trades were recorded in the last 90 days.

Swing trader

Shell is in a strong uptrend above all key averages and just under its record high. Earnings in two days are the main near-term event and bring gap risk after a 1.80% drop on Oct 27.

Trend and momentum

Price of 3,927.50 is above the SMA20 (3,815.40), SMA50 (3,621.82) and SMA200 (3,264.14). RSI14 is 63.43, ADX14 is 39.93 showing a strong trend, and MACD of 107.28 is just above its signal of 104.6. RSRating is 92.

Recent action and levels

The stock hit 4,035.50 on Oct 23, then closed at 3,999.50 on Oct 26 and 3,927.50 on Oct 27, on lighter volume of 5.2M. Levels to note: 4,035.50 high, SMA10 at 3,934.70, EMA21 at 3,828.88 and the Bollinger upper band at 4,103.38. ATR14 is 76.70, or 1.95%.

Catalysts and sentiment

Earnings come on Oct 29, 2026. The last earnings-day move was 1.81%, and earlier moves ranged from -3.38% to 3.55%. Analyst actions in the last 90 days were mostly reiterations, with a Morgan Stanley upgrade on Sep 3, 2026. Short interest data is not provided.

Analysis written October 28, 2026 from Qanvo data as of October 27, 2026. AI-generated, for information only; not investment advice.