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Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) stock analysis

Palantir near record highs ahead of Nov. 2 earnings, with growth strong and valuation stretched

Palantir closed at 198.73 on Oct 27, 2026, 6.67% below its all-time high of 212.94, with earnings due Nov 2 after the close. Revenue growth of 78.92% year over year and a 42.80% operating margin sit against a forward P/E of 85.87 versus an industry median of 19.31. Options imply an 11.61% earnings move.

  • Price: 198.73
  • Market Cap (USD): $476.33B
  • P/E: 157.90×
  • Fwd P/E: 85.87×
  • Div Yield: 0.00%
  • 1Y Return: 7.64%
  • Next Earnings: Nov 2, 2026
  • Mean Target: 207.12
  • Rating: Buy

Bull case

  • Revenue growth was 92.83% year over year in the latest quarter and 78.92% on a trailing basis, in the 93rd percentile of US Technology against a sector median of 17.66%.
  • Operating margin is 42.80% and free cash flow margin is 54.57%, with ROIC of 361.04% against a sector median of 15.21%; the company holds $9.20B more cash than debt (net debt -9.20B).
  • Analysts' mean target is 207.12 from 19 analysts with a Buy consensus label; two upgrades (Goldman Sachs and Raymond James on Oct 8, 2026) and no downgrades in the past 30 days, and the stock has reported 12 straight EPS beats.

Bear case

  • Valuation is extreme: forward P/E of 85.87 (on next year's consensus EPS) versus an industry median of 19.31, price to sales of 77.38, and a free cash flow yield of just 0.71%.
  • Insiders sold 46 times in the past 90 days with no buys, for a net value of -106.6M; CEO Alexander Karp sold shares on Aug 20, 2026, including a 53.6M transaction.
  • The stock is volatile: beta of 1.99, one-year maximum drawdown of -48.22%, and the 60-day historical volatility of 70.54%. The 3 Sell ratings include RBC Capital's Underperform reiterated on Oct 28, 2026.

What to watch

  • Q3 earnings on Nov 2, 2026 after the close (confirmed); consensus EPS is 0.4076 and the options market implies an 11.61% move.
  • The 52-week and all-time high of 212.94 (set 11 days ago) and the 20-day low of 184.45.
  • The 20-day average at 196.67 and 50-day average at 185.77 as near-term support references; the 200-day average sits at 153.36.
  • Short interest update after the Oct 15, 2026 reading of 56.1M shares (2.34% of float).

General

Palantir builds software platforms that serve as central operating systems for commercial and government customers. Growth and profitability are exceptional by sector standards, and the market prices that in at a steep premium. Earnings on Nov 2 are the next test.

Business momentum

Revenue reached $6.16B over the trailing twelve months, with 25 consecutive quarters of revenue increases. The latest quarter (Q2 FY2026) brought revenue of 1.94B and diluted EPS of 0.41, up from 1.00B and 0.13 a year earlier. Government made up 53.68% of fiscal 2025 revenue and Commercial 46.32%.

Valuation in context

The forward P/E of 85.87 (on next year's consensus EPS) is in the 94th percentile of US Technology, whose median is 21.60. Price to sales is 77.38 against a sector median of 6.86. The value score is 0, so the stock is priced for sustained high growth.

Market and analyst signals

The consensus label is Buy, with 14 Buy, 9 Hold and 3 Sell ratings. The mean target of 207.12 implies 4.22% upside. Recent target moves include Deutsche Bank to 225 from 200 on Oct 26, and Rosenblatt at 260 on Oct 27.

Long-term investor

Fundamentals show durable acceleration: revenue growth has gone from 32.92% (3-year CAGR) to 78.92% over the last year, with margins and returns far above peers. The debate is whether growth can justify a forward P/E of 85.87 over 3-5 years.

Growth and margins

Annual revenue rose from 1.54B in fiscal 2021 to 4.48B in fiscal 2025, and operating income moved from -411.0M to 1.41B. Operating margin is 42.80%, up 26.24% over the past year, and gross margin is 84.80%. Revenue accelerated across 12 recent quarters. Consensus expects EPS growth of 44.31% next fiscal year.

Balance sheet and capital returns

Debt is 211.4M against cash and short-term investments of roughly 9.41B in total cash, giving a current ratio of 7.23 and a Piotroski score of 9. No dividend is paid (yield 0.00%). Repurchases were 75.0M in fiscal 2025, and shares outstanding rose 0.27% over the year.

Valuation, ownership and insiders

Forward P/E is 85.87 and PEG is 1.94. Institutional ownership is 61.26%, with a 5.47% change over three months. Insiders recorded 46 sells and no buys in 90 days, net -106.6M, including sales by Karp on Aug 20, 2026.

Swing trader

The trend is up, with the price above the 20, 50 and 200-day averages and a golden cross on Sep 9, 2026. Momentum has cooled slightly, and the Nov 2 earnings gap risk dominates the next week.

Trend and momentum

Price of 198.73 is 1.05% above the 20-day average, 6.98% above the 50-day and 29.58% above the 200-day. RSI is 55.97, ADX is 23.06 and the MACD histogram is -0.96 (MACD 3.95 below its signal 4.91), showing momentum easing within an uptrend. Relative strength rating is 94.

Levels and recent sessions

The high of 212.94 was set Oct 12; the 20-day low is 184.45, hit during the Oct 16 session that closed at 186.03 on 33.4M shares. The stock has since recovered to 198.73. The 20-day average is 196.67 and the 50-day is 185.77. ATR is 7.84, or 3.95% of price.

Catalysts and positioning

Earnings come Nov 2 after the close; the last report was followed by a 32.18% move. Short interest was 56.1M shares (2.34% of float) on Oct 15, 2026, down from 68.3M on Aug 14. Analyst flow is positive: two upgrades and a Barclays initiation on Oct 8.

Options

Implied volatility is elevated and priced above realized, with the market pricing earnings inside the 30-day window. Liquidity is strong, and the term structure is inverted around the event.

Volatility level and premium

30-day implied volatility is 62.10%, with an IV rank of 71 and an IV percentile of 82 against a 52-week range of 40.97% to 70.57%. It is 1.57 times 30-day historical volatility of 39.56%, a spread of +22.5 points, so premium is rich relative to recent realized movement.

Term structure and expected moves

The structure is in backwardation: the 30-day slope versus 90-day is -8.3 points (IV60 55.20%, IV90 53.84%), consistent with the event premium. Skew at 25 delta is +3.3 points. The implied 7-day move is 8.60% and the 30-day move is 17.80%.

Earnings and premium yields

The implied earnings move is 11.61% versus a 4-quarter average actual of 12.60% and 8-quarter average of 15.37%; the maximum was 32.18%. Annualized yield is 49.01% for 30-delta cash-secured puts and 40.76% for 30-delta covered calls (Nov 27 expiry, earnings included). Options liquidity score is 100, with a put/call volume ratio of 0.77.

Analysis written October 28, 2026 from Qanvo data as of October 27, 2026. AI-generated, for information only; not investment advice.