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The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) stock analysis

P&G rebounds above its 200-day average after earnings beat, with options volatility near 52-week lows

The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) closed at 159.23 on Oct 27, 2026, up 6.84% over one month, after a Oct 22 EPS beat of 6.38%. Valuation sits at a premium to Consumer Staples peers, while analysts' mean target of 164.58 is only 3.36% above the price. Implied volatility is at the 8th percentile-rank of its 52-week range.

  • Price: 159.23
  • Market Cap (USD): $385.73B
  • P/E: 24.04×
  • Fwd P/E: 22.84×
  • Div Yield: 2.71%
  • 1Y Return: 4.42%
  • Next Earnings: Jan 20, 2027
  • Mean Target: 164.58
  • Rating: Buy

Bull case

  • The Oct 22, 2026 report beat consensus EPS (2.00 vs 1.88, a 6.38% surprise) and was the 7th straight beat, with the stock moving 2.67% on the day.
  • Profitability is strong: ROIC of 19.65% is in the 71st percentile of US Consumer Staples (sector median 15.32%), and operating margin of 22.69% compares with a sector median of 12.34%.
  • Technical trend has improved: price is 7.09% above the 200-day average of 148.69, the 50-day average crossed above the 200-day on Oct 26, 2026, and the relative strength rating is 76.

Bear case

  • Valuation is rich versus peers: forward P/E of 22.84 (on next year's consensus EPS) is in the 83rd percentile of the sector, against an industry median of 15.35, and the PEG ratio is 3.71.
  • Growth is modest: trailing revenue growth is 3.26%, the latest quarter's EPS growth was -14.86% year over year, and operating margin fell 1.57% over the past year.
  • Insider selling is heavy: 21 insider sells and no buys in the last 90 days, net value -15.0M, including the CEO's 35,000-share sale at 163.09 on Oct 23, 2026.

What to watch

  • Next earnings on Jan 20, 2027 (before market open, confirmed), 85 days away, with next-quarter consensus EPS of 1.63.
  • 52-week high of 167.25 (4.80% above the current price) and the 20-day high of 166.85.
  • Support levels at the 20-day average of 153.85 and the 200-day average of 148.69.
  • Bank of America Securities' Oct 23, 2026 downgrade to Underperform, as analyst targets cluster near the current price.

General

P&G sells branded consumer goods across Beauty, Grooming, Health Care, Fabric and Home Care, and Baby, Feminine and Family Care. The business is steady, profitable and pays a growing dividend, but it trades at a premium to peers with slow growth. Analysts lean positive, with a mean target close to the current price.

Business and results

Fiscal 2026 revenue was 87.03B, up from 84.28B in fiscal 2025, with net income of 16.05B and diluted EPS of 6.62. Fabric Care and Home Care is the largest segment at 35.20% of revenue, and Non-US markets account for 52.07%. The latest quarter's EPS of 1.26 was below the 1.48 of the year-earlier quarter.

Valuation

The trailing P/E is 24.04 and the forward P/E is 22.84 on next year's consensus EPS, versus a sector median of 15.65. The free cash flow yield of 3.93% is in the 24th percentile of the sector. The market is paying up for stability and quality.

Analysts and market signals

Consensus rating is Buy (29 Buy, 23 Hold, 1 Sell as of Oct 28, 2026), with a mean target of 164.58 from 12 analysts. Several firms raised targets after the Oct 22 report, such as Morgan Stanley to 185 and Piper Sandler to 167. Bank of America Securities downgraded to Underperform on Oct 23.

Long-term investor

P&G combines high returns on capital, steady cash returns and a 29-year dividend growth record, but growth has been slow. Revenue grew at a 2.00% three-year rate, and EPS at 3.91%. Valuation is high relative to peers.

Growth and margins

Revenue grew from 76.12B in fiscal 2021 to 87.03B in fiscal 2026, a five-year CAGR of 2.72%. Gross margin is 50.18% but is down 0.98% over the past year, and operating margin is down 1.57%. Consensus EPS of 6.97 for this fiscal year and 7.40 for next implies continued modest growth.

Returns and balance sheet

ROIC is 19.65% and ROE is 30.18%. Total debt is 35.03B against cash of 9.94B, with net debt to EBITDA of 1.03 and interest coverage of 22.52. The current ratio of 0.68 is low, which is worth noting despite the strong coverage.

Cash returns and ownership

Fiscal 2026 dividends paid were 10.23B and buybacks 5.03B, against free cash flow of 15.15B. The payout ratio is 65.29% and shares outstanding fell 1.30% over one year. Institutional ownership is 69.24%, up 3.21% over three months, while insiders have sold 21 times in 90 days.

Swing trader

PG is in a short-term uptrend, trading above its 20-, 50- and 200-day averages after a 6.84% one-month gain. Momentum is positive but the stock has pulled back from the Oct 22 high. The 52-week high of 167.25 is the nearest overhead level.

Trend and momentum

Price of 159.23 is 3.50% above the 20-day average (153.85), 6.87% above the 50-day (149.00) and 7.09% above the 200-day (148.69). The golden cross occurred Oct 26, 2026. RSI is 59.87, MACD is above its signal line, and ADX of 35.03 indicates a strong trend.

Recent action and levels

The stock peaked at 166.85 intraday on Oct 22 on 22.0M volume, then closed lower in three straight sessions, from 165.59 to 159.23. Volume on Oct 27 was 7.5M, a relative volume of 0.82. Levels: 20-day low 143.40, 52-week high 167.25.

Risk and sentiment

ATR is 3.04, or 1.91% of price. Short interest is 22.1M shares (0.91% of float) as of Oct 15, 2026, down 9.58%. Analyst flow was mostly reiterations after earnings, with one downgrade (Bank of America Securities) and several target raises.

Options

Implied volatility is low, at 17.56% for 30 days and an IV rank of 8, and sits below recent realized volatility. Options are liquid, with call-heavy flow. No earnings fall before the Nov 27, 2026 expiry.

Volatility level

The 30-day implied volatility is 17.56% versus a 52-week range of 16.48% to 30.14%, with an IV percentile of 4. It fell 7.0 points over 20 days. Implied volatility is below 30-day historical volatility of 24.76% (ratio 0.71), so options are cheap relative to recent realized movement.

Term structure and expected moves

Term structure is in contango, with 90-day IV of 18.53%, 1.0 points above 30-day. Skew at 25 delta is -0.9 points. The expected 30-day move is 5.03% (8.02), and the 7-day move is 2.43%.

Premium yields and liquidity

For the Nov 27, 2026 expiry (31 days), the 155.00 put (30-delta) pays 1.50, an annualized cash-secured put yield of 11.39%. The 165.00 call pays 1.28, an annualized covered-call yield of 9.46%. The liquidity score is 92, and put/call volume is 0.42.

Analysis written October 28, 2026 from Qanvo data as of October 27, 2026. AI-generated, for information only; not investment advice.