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Oracle Corporation (ORCL) stock analysis

Oracle trades 54.52% below its 52-week high as an investor-day revenue target lands after the Oct 27 close

Oracle closed at 130.53 on Oct 27, 2026, up 3.55% on the day but down 33.03% year to date. Revenue is growing (17.35% year over year) while heavy capex has pushed trailing free cash flow to -23.69B and debt to 156.19B. Headlines dated Oct 28 report an 11% jump after fiscal 2030 revenue targets; that move is not in the price data here.

  • Price: 130.53
  • Market Cap (USD): $375.67B
  • P/E: 21.99×
  • Fwd P/E: 16.04×
  • Div Yield: 1.53%
  • 1Y Return: -53.93%
  • Next Earnings: Dec 9, 2026
  • Mean Target: 222.80
  • Rating: Buy

Bull case

  • Revenue growth was 20.63% year over year in the latest quarter, and quarterly revenue rose from 14.93B in Q1 FY2026 to 19.18B in Q4 FY2026.
  • Forward P/E is 16.04 (based on next fiscal year's consensus EPS of 8.14), in the 28th percentile of US Technology versus a sector median of 21.60, with consensus EPS growth of 35.41% next year.
  • Analysts' mean target is 222.80 from 23 analysts, with a Buy consensus label and no upgrades or downgrades in 30 days; EPS has beaten consensus four quarters in a row.

Bear case

  • Free cash flow was -23.69B over the trailing twelve months because capex of -55.66B exceeded operating cash flow of 31.98B, giving an FCF margin of -35.16%.
  • Total debt is 156.19B against cash of 31.89B, net debt to EBITDA is 3.72, debt to equity is 3.67 (97th percentile of the sector) and interest coverage is 4.52.
  • The stock sits 17.33% below its 200-day average, the 50-day average is below the 200-day average (death cross Jan 7, 2026), and the 1-year return is -53.93% with a relative strength rating of 25.

What to watch

  • Next earnings on Dec 9, 2026 (confirmed, 43 days out); the calendar also lists Dec 10 and Dec 14 entries.
  • Reaction to the Oct 28 investor-day news against the 20-day high of 146.94 and the 50-day average of 142.08.
  • Support near the 20-day low of 122.76 and the 52-week low of 114.50.
  • Whether capex and cash flow move toward the cash-flow-positive timing (second half of fiscal 2028) reported by Reuters on Oct 28.

General

Oracle is a large enterprise software company growing revenue at a double-digit pace while spending heavily to build out its business. The shares are far below their highs and trade at a discount to sector peers on forward earnings. Cash flow and leverage are the main concerns.

The business

Oracle provides enterprise IT solutions, including cloud software-as-a-service applications such as the Oracle Fusion Cloud suite (ERP, EPM, supply chain, HCM), NetSuite and Oracle Advertising. It has 141,000 employees. Trailing revenue is 67.36B, with an operating margin of 30.85% and net income of 17.09B.

Valuation and sentiment

The stock trades at 21.99 times trailing earnings and 16.04 times next fiscal year's consensus EPS, against an industry median forward P/E of 19.31. Analysts show a Buy label with a mean target of 222.80 versus a 130.53 close. Goldman Sachs cut its target to 206 from 240 on Oct 23, 2026.

Latest news

Headlines dated Oct 28, 2026 report the stock jumping about 11% after Oracle set a fiscal 2030 revenue target above $225 billion and forecast 35% average revenue growth. Reuters says Oracle expects to turn cash flow positive in the second half of fiscal 2028. These are not yet in the price data.

Long-term investor

Growth and earnings are strong, but capital intensity has erased free cash flow and loaded the balance sheet. Returns on invested capital are modest relative to peers. The valuation is below the sector, and the long-term targets announced Oct 28 will be tested against cash generation.

Growth and margins

Annual revenue rose from 40.48B in fiscal 2021 to 67.36B in fiscal 2026, a 5-year CAGR of 10.72%. EPS growth over three years is 23.83% annualized. Operating margin is 30.85% (81st percentile of the sector), but gross margin fell 4.70% over one year to 65.81%.

Returns and balance sheet

ROE is 54.28%, but ROIC is 9.84% (37th percentile, sector median 15.21%), and ROE is lifted by thin equity of 42.51B. Debt is 156.19B, the Altman Z-score is 1.55 and the current ratio is 1.12. Free cash flow fell from 11.81B in fiscal 2024 to -23.69B in fiscal 2026.

Capital returns and ownership

Dividends of 5.79B were paid in fiscal 2026 (yield 1.53%, payout ratio 34.31%, 12 years of growth), while buybacks fell to 206.0M from 1.50B. Shares outstanding rose 1.53% over one year. Institutional ownership is 45.13%; insiders recorded 3 sells and 1 buy in the last 90 days, with net value of -1.9M.

Swing trader

The trend is down, with the price below the 20-, 50- and 200-day averages and a weak relative strength rating of 25. The stock is volatile (ATR 4.89% of price) and range-bound near 122 to 147 over the last 20 days. The Oct 28 gap is not in the data and may change this picture.

Trend and momentum

At 130.53 the price is 3.22% below the 20-day average (134.88), 8.13% below the 50-day (142.08) and 17.33% below the 200-day (157.89). The 14-day RSI is 44.59, the MACD is -4.33 below its signal of -3.83, and ADX is 12.38, which suggests no strong trend.

Recent sessions and levels

Oracle rose 3.55% on Oct 27 on volume of 25.6M, below the 30.1M 10-day average. The 20-day range is 122.76 to 146.94, and the 52-week low is 114.50. The Oct 14 session fell from 143.20 to 130.55 on 52.5M volume. The 2-day RSI of 87.06 shows a short-term bounce.

Catalysts and positioning

Earnings are due Dec 9, 2026; the last reaction was -7.02% on Sep 10. Short interest is low at 47.5M shares (1.65% of float) as of Oct 15, and no ex-dividend date falls before the next earnings (the last was Oct 9). Wells Fargo, Bernstein and Cantor reiterated ratings on Oct 22 to 27.

Options

Implied volatility is elevated in absolute terms but mid-range versus its own history, and it sits slightly above realized volatility. Liquidity is excellent and call volume exceeds put volume, while put premium dominated. Data pre-dates the Oct 28 move.

Volatility level

The 30-day implied volatility is 56.86%, with an IV rank of 38 and an IV percentile of 44 (52-week range 39.60% to 85.35%). It exceeds 30-day historical volatility by 4.7 points (ratio 1.09), so premium is modestly rich relative to realized volatility. The term structure is in contango, with 90-day IV 1.9 points above 30-day.

Expected moves and earnings

The 30-day expected move is 21.28 (16.30%) and the 7-day expected move is 10.28 (7.87%). The 30-day expiry (Nov 27, 2026) falls before earnings. The average earnings move was 8.86% over four quarters and 12.51% over eight, with a maximum of 37.68%; the last implied move was 16.43% versus an actual -7.02%.

Premium and liquidity

The 30-day put near 122.00 (6.53% out of the money) carries 4.54 of premium, a 43.82% annualized cash-secured yield. The call near 145.00 carries 4.00, a 36.08% covered-call yield. Skew is -1.1 points, the options liquidity score is 100 and the put/call volume ratio is 0.52, though put premium of $201.6M exceeded call premium of $84.7M on the day.

Analysis written October 28, 2026 from Qanvo data as of October 27, 2026. AI-generated, for information only; not investment advice.