Stock reports › US › Technology

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) stock analysis

NVIDIA: AI-driven growth and a 13.79 forward P/E, but shares sit 10.45% below the high ahead of Nov 18 earnings

NVIDIA closed at 217.94 on Oct 27, 2026, 10.45% below its 243.37 high, with trailing revenue of $215.94B and an operating margin of 60.38%. The forward P/E of 13.79 (on FY2 consensus EPS) is below the industry median, while insiders have sold and the stock is below its 20- and 50-day averages. The next report is Nov 18, 2026 after the close.

  • Price: 217.94
  • Market Cap (USD): $5.30T
  • P/E: 44.12×
  • Fwd P/E: 13.79×
  • Div Yield: 0.01%
  • 1Y Return: 17.01%
  • Next Earnings: Nov 18, 2026
  • Mean Target: 332.32
  • Rating: Strong Buy

Bull case

  • Revenue growth was 65.47% year over year and 73.21% in the latest quarter, with 13 straight quarters of revenue increases and 2 quarters of acceleration.
  • Operating margin of 60.38% and ROIC of 97.04% sit in the 97th and 93rd percentile of US Technology, alongside free cash flow of $96.68B.
  • Forward P/E of 13.79 (using EPSConsensusFY2 of 15.81) compares with an industry median of 22.25, and analysts' mean target is 332.32 across 25 targets in the last 3 months.

Bear case

  • Insiders made 25 sales and no purchases in 90 days, a net -967.6M, including director Mark A. Stevens selling 1.4M shares at 219.72 on Sep 18, 2026.
  • Gross margin is 71.07%, down 3.92% over one year, and operating margin is down 2.04%; recent news headlines also flag risks to earnings revisions and competition.
  • Data Center is 89.72% of fiscal 2026 revenue and China is 9.11%, so the business is concentrated; beta is 1.94 and max drawdown over 1Y is -20.22%.

What to watch

  • Q3 FY2027 earnings on Nov 18, 2026 after the close (EPS consensus 2.47); the options market implies a 4.65% move.
  • The 20-day low of 210.18 and the SMA200 at 203.99 as support; the SMA20 at 224.44 and SMA50 at 222.16 as resistance.
  • The 52-week and all-time high of 243.37, last set 15 days ago.
  • Short interest (301.6M shares, 1.24% of float as of Oct 15, 2026) at the next update.

General

NVIDIA designs graphics processors and related software, and data center products now drive most of its revenue. Growth, margins and cash generation are exceptional, and the forward P/E is below the industry median. The stock has pulled back from its high, and insider selling and revenue concentration are the main counterweights.

The business

Per the profile, NVIDIA designs graphics processors, chipsets and related software across Graphics and Compute & Networking segments. In fiscal 2026 Data Center was $193.74B, or 89.72% of revenue, Gaming 7.43%. The United States was 69.29% of revenue, Taiwan 19.61% and China 9.11%.

Performance

Trailing revenue is $215.94B with net income of $120.07B and EPS of 4.90. Quarterly revenue rose to $68.13B in Q4 FY2026 from $39.33B a year earlier. Free cash flow was $96.68B, a 44.77% margin, and net cash is $51.14B.

Valuation and sentiment

Trailing P/E is 44.12 and forward P/E is 13.79 on FY2 consensus EPS (FY1 is 9.29), in the 16th percentile of US Technology. Of the analysts counted, 2 rate it Strong Buy, 58 Buy, 16 Hold and 3 Sell. The mean target is 332.32, though Wells Fargo's Oct 2 target was 210.

Long-term investor

Growth, returns and balance sheet strength are all top-tier versus US Technology peers, and capital is returned through buybacks. The case rests on durability of the AI-driven demand behind Data Center revenue, with gross margin slipping slightly and insiders selling as offsets.

Growth durability

Revenue grew from $60.92B in fiscal 2024 to $130.50B in fiscal 2025 and $215.94B in fiscal 2026. The 3-year revenue CAGR is 100.05% and EPS growth next fiscal year is 70.15%, in the 95th percentile of peers. Quarterly revenue has risen for 13 straight quarters.

Margins, returns and balance sheet

Operating margin is 60.38% and ROE is 101.49%. Gross margin of 71.07% is down 3.92% year over year. Total debt is $11.41B against cash and equivalents of $62.56B, with a current ratio of 3.91 and net debt/EBITDA of -0.35. The Piotroski F-Score is 4 and Quality Score 42.

Capital return and ownership

Fiscal 2026 buybacks were $40.09B and dividends $974.0M; shares outstanding fell 1.11% over one year. Institutions hold 69.68%, up 3.12% over three months. Valuation: PEG 0.20, price/sales 24.53 (92nd percentile), FCF yield 1.83%.

Swing trader

The stock is in a pullback within a longer uptrend: below its 20- and 50-day averages but above the 100- and 200-day. Momentum is soft, trend strength is low, and earnings on Nov 18 fall within a typical multi-week window.

Trend and momentum

Price of 217.94 is 2.89% below the SMA20 (224.44) and 1.90% below the SMA50 (222.16), but 6.84% above the SMA200 (203.99). RSI14 is 46.29, MACD -2.6 is below its signal -1.27, and ADX14 of 18.47 points to a weak trend. One-month return is -4.77%.

Recent sessions and levels

Shares fell from 237.47 on Oct 7 to a 210.96 close on Oct 23, then recovered to 217.94 on Oct 27 on 0.81× relative volume. Support: the 20-day low of 210.18, lower Bollinger band 206.76. Resistance: SMA50, SMA20 and the 243.37 high, set 15 days ago.

Risk and flow

ATR14 is 5.94 (2.72% of price); 30-day historical volatility is 28.09%. Short interest is 301.6M shares, 1.24% of float on Oct 15, down 3.14%. Earnings arrive Nov 18 after the close; the last report brought a 7.01% move. Analyst actions in October were mostly reiterations.

Options

Implied volatility is mid-range versus its own history but rich relative to recent realized volatility. The term structure is inverted around the Nov 18 earnings date, and liquidity is deep. Premium for sellers is elevated, with earnings inside the 30-day expiry.

Volatility level

IV30 is 40.24% (IV Rank 44, percentile 57; 52-week range 28.89% to 54.87%), up 9.1 points over 20 days. HV30 is 28.09%, so IV/HV is 1.43× and the IV-HV spread is +12.2 points. Premium is rich relative to realized volatility.

Term structure and expected moves

IV60 is 38.60% and IV90 37.72%: backwardation, with a 30v90 slope of -2.5 points, consistent with near-term event risk. 25-delta skew is +3.4 points. Expected moves are 5.57% (12.15) over 7 days and 11.54% (25.14) over 30 days.

Earnings and premium yields

The implied earnings move is 4.65%, 1.77× the 4-quarter average of 3.01%; the 8-quarter maximum was 7.01%. Average IV crush is 11.21%. For the Nov 27 expiry (31 days), the 30-delta put at 205.00 pays 4.95 (28.43% annualized) and the 30-delta call at 235.00 pays 3.90 (21.07%).

Liquidity and flow

The liquidity score is 100 with open interest of 15.0M. Today's options volume of 1.6M is 0.57× the 20-day average of 2.7M. The put/call volume ratio is 0.60 and open-interest ratio 1.01, with net call premium of $187.8M. The unusual-activity score is 2.

Analysis written October 28, 2026 from Qanvo data as of October 27, 2026. AI-generated, for information only; not investment advice.