Stock reports › US › Financials

Morgan Stanley (MS) stock analysis

Morgan Stanley rebounds from post-earnings lows but trades below its 50-day and 200-day averages

Morgan Stanley closed at 186.91 on Oct 27, 2026, up 1.86% on the day and 19.52% below its 52-week high of 232.25. Q3 EPS of 3.03 beat consensus of 2.93, and revenue growth is strong, but the 3-month return of -7.99% lags the sector. Forward P/E of 13.57 (on next year's consensus EPS) sits above the industry median of 11.77.

  • Price: 186.91
  • Market Cap (USD): $289.34B
  • P/E: 14.10×
  • Fwd P/E: 13.57×
  • Div Yield: 2.22%
  • 1Y Return: 14.07%
  • Next Earnings: Jan 14, 2027
  • Mean Target: 221.83
  • Rating: Hold

Bull case

  • Q3 FY2026 EPS of 3.03 beat the 2.93 consensus by 3.41%, extending the EPS beat streak to 11 quarters.
  • Revenue grew 15.75% year over year, in the 72nd percentile of US Financials, with a 3-year revenue CAGR of 22.55%.
  • ROE of 18.05% is above the sector median of 13.16%, and the mean analyst target of 221.83 implies 18.68% upside.

Bear case

  • Price of 186.91 is 6.34% below the 50-day average of 199.56 and 3.78% below the 200-day average of 194.26, with a 3-month return of -7.99%.
  • Forward P/E of 13.57 is 15.26% above the industry median of 11.77, while next-year EPS growth of 7.07% is in the 19th percentile of the sector.
  • Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, a 10 percent owner, disposed of 1.3M shares on Sep 22, 2026 (value 285.0M), and the one downgrade in the last 30 days leaves the analyst rating score at 2.75 (Hold).

What to watch

  • Ex-dividend date of Oct 30, 2026 for the 1.15 quarterly dividend.
  • Next earnings on Jan 14, 2027, with consensus EPS of 2.93.
  • The 20-day high of 193.30 and the 200-day average of 194.26 as overhead resistance.
  • The 20-day low of 176.44 as nearby support, with the 52-week low at 152.80.

General

Morgan Stanley is a financial holding company with Institutional Securities, Wealth Management and Investment Management divisions. Earnings and revenue are growing, but the stock has pulled back about 20% from its high. Valuation is above the industry median and analysts are split between Buy and Hold.

Business and results

In fiscal 2025, Institutional Securities contributed 46.36% of revenue and Wealth Management 44.50%. The Americas made up 74.88%. Trailing revenue is $129.76B and net income is 20.52B. Q3 FY2026 revenue was 33.28B, with net income of 4.91B and EPS of 3.03.

Valuation

Trailing P/E is 14.10 and forward P/E is 13.57 on next year's consensus EPS, versus an industry median of 11.77. Against US Financials, forward P/E is in the 67th percentile. Price to book is 2.46 and the dividend yield is 2.22%, in the 58th percentile.

Analysts and market signals

As of Oct 28, 2026, the ratings split is 29 Buy, 23 Hold and 1 Sell. The mean target of 221.83 sits above the price. In October, UBS cut its target to 236 from 260 and Wells Fargo kept a Reduce rating with a 217 target. Short interest is low at 0.92% of float.

Long-term investor

Revenue and earnings have compounded strongly, with a 3-year revenue CAGR of 22.55% and EPS CAGR of 18.37%. Returns on equity are above the sector median and the dividend has grown for 12 years. Valuation is not cheap and expected EPS growth is below the sector.

Growth and margins

Annual revenue rose from 62.48B in fiscal 2022 to 114.98B in fiscal 2025, and diluted EPS from 6.15 to 10.2. Operating margin is 20.54%, up 1.71% over one year but in the 42nd percentile of the sector. Consensus EPS growth for next fiscal year is 7.07%.

Balance sheet and capital return

Total debt is reported as 0.00 with 120.10B in short-term investments, and total assets are 1.69T against equity of 117.44B. Shares outstanding fell 1.69% in a year. Fiscal 2025 buybacks were 5.83B and dividends 6.59B. The payout ratio is 33.17%, and the quarterly dividend rose to 1.15.

Ownership and revisions

Institutional ownership is 86.48%, up 1.99% over three months. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group disposed of 1.3M shares on Sep 22, 2026 and 414.4K on Jul 30, 2026. Insiders show no buys or sells in the last 90 days. Several analyst targets were cut in September and October.

Swing trader

The stock is bouncing from a 176.44 low set around earnings, up 3.61% over five days. It remains below the 50-day and 200-day averages, and the 50-day average of 199.56 is falling toward price. Trend strength is high and momentum is mixed.

Trend and momentum

Price of 186.91 is 0.61% above the 20-day average of 185.77, below the 200-day average of 194.26 and the 50-day average of 199.56. The 14-day RSI is 46.36, the MACD of -4.58 is above its signal of -5.48, and ADX of 37.55 shows a strong trend. Relative strength rating is 56.

Recent sessions and levels

Shares gapped up 1.58% on Oct 27 and closed at 186.91 on 6.5M volume, near the 10-day average of 7.0M. Resistance sits at the 20-day high of 193.30 and the upper Bollinger band at 193.83. Support is the 20-day low of 176.44 and the lower band at 177.71. ATR is 5.18, or 2.77%.

Catalysts and positioning

Ex-dividend on Oct 30, 2026 (1.15) is three days away; next earnings are Jan 14, 2027. Short interest of 14.3M shares as of Oct 15, 2026 is 0.92% of float and has eased from 14.9M on Aug 31. Wells Fargo, RBC and others reiterated ratings after earnings.

Options

Implied volatility is in the lower-middle of its 52-week range, but it is above recent realized volatility. Term structure is in contango and put skew is positive. Liquidity is strong, and no earnings fall inside the 30-day expiry.

Volatility level and premium

30-day implied volatility is 29.17%, an IV rank of 30 and IV percentile of 39 against a 52-week range of 22.20% to 45.25%. It is 4.1 points above 30-day realized volatility, a ratio of 1.16×, so premium is modestly rich relative to realized moves. 30-day IV fell 5.5 points over 20 days.

Term structure and expected move

The term structure is in contango, with 90-day IV at 30.38%, 1.2 points above the 30-day level. The 25-delta skew is +5.9 points. The 30-day expected move is 8.36%, or 15.63, and the 7-day expected move is 4.04%, or 7.55. Earnings are not before the Nov 27, 2026 expiry.

Premium yields and liquidity

For the Nov 27 expiry, the 30-delta put at 180.00 pays 3.65, a 23.88% annualized yield, 3.70% out of the money. The 30-delta call at 195.00 pays 2.75, a 17.32% annualized yield, and an ex-dividend date falls before expiry. The liquidity score is 92, with open interest of 438.2K and a put/call volume ratio of 1.35×.

Analysis written October 28, 2026 from Qanvo data as of October 27, 2026. AI-generated, for information only; not investment advice.