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The Coca-Cola Company (KO) stock analysis

Coca-Cola slips 1.64% to 91.18 after earnings beat, still 4.39% below its record high of 95.37

KO reported on Oct 27, 2026 with EPS of 0.91 against a 0.881 consensus, and the shares closed at 91.18, down 1.64%. The stock is up 30.42% year to date and trades at a forward P/E of 25.83, well above the sector median of 15.65. Analysts are positive, but valuation is demanding and insiders sold in recent months.

  • Price: 91.18
  • Market Cap (USD): $392.26B
  • P/E: 27.40×
  • Fwd P/E: 25.83×
  • Div Yield: 2.30%
  • 1Y Return: 30.80%
  • Next Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
  • Mean Target: 97.00
  • Rating: Strong Buy

Bull case

  • The Oct 27, 2026 report beat EPS consensus by 3.29% (0.91 vs 0.881) and revenue by 3.72%, extending a run of 10 straight EPS beats.
  • Profitability is high: operating margin of 29.63% (93rd percentile in US Consumer Staples), ROIC of 18.53% and ROE of 44.23%, with a Piotroski F-Score of 9.
  • Analyst sentiment is supportive: mean target of 97.00 from 13 analysts, with UBS raising its target to 106 from 104 and Piper Sandler to 102 from 95 in the last few days.

Bear case

  • Valuation is stretched against peers: forward P/E of 25.83 sits in the 88th percentile of the sector (median 15.65), and PEG is 3.83.
  • Insiders sold shares in the past 90 days (6 sells, 0 buys, net -26.2M), including Chairman James Quincey's sale of 381.1K shares on Jul 28, 2026.
  • Net debt of 27.17B and a payout ratio of 63.06% limit flexibility, and FCF yield of 3.64% is in the 18th percentile of the sector (median 5.67%).

What to watch

  • Next ex-dividend date Dec 1, 2026 (0.53 per share, paid Dec 15, 2026).
  • Support near the 20-day low of 85.13 and the 50-day average at 89.29; the 52-week and all-time high is 95.37.
  • Follow-through after the Oct 27 report: the stock fell 3 days in a row to 91.18 despite the beat.
  • Short interest, last 49.6M shares (1.15% of float) as of Oct 15, 2026.

General

Coca-Cola manufactures and markets non-alcoholic beverages across several regional segments. It is growing revenue 6.52% year over year with high margins, and the stock is near record levels. The market pays a premium multiple for that stability, which is the main debate.

Business

Per its profile, the company makes and markets non-alcoholic beverages through segments including Europe, Middle East and Africa, Latin America, North America, Asia Pacific, Global Ventures and Bottling Investments. TTM revenue is 50.13B, with a net margin of 28.56% and EPS (TTM) of 3.33.

Recent results

On Oct 27, 2026 it reported EPS of 0.91 versus 0.881 expected, a 3.29% beat, with revenue 3.72% above consensus. Q2 FY2026 revenue was 13.38B and EPS was 1.03. Quarterly revenue growth is 6.74% year over year.

Valuation and sentiment

Forward P/E is 25.83 (on the next-fiscal-year basis), against an industry median of 18.27 and sector median of 15.65. Analysts rate it Buy (29 Buy, 16 Hold, 3 Sell) with a mean target of 97.00, 6.38% above the 91.18 price.

Main risks

The premium multiple leaves less room for disappointment. The dividend yield is 2.30%, below the sector median of 2.76%, and insiders have been net sellers. Debt is 43.54B against 36.15B equity.

Long-term investor

Coca-Cola combines steady growth, very high margins and returns with a long dividend record. Growth over three years is moderate and the stock already carries a premium multiple, so the case rests on durability rather than cheapness.

Growth and margins

Revenue rose from 33.01B in FY2020 to 47.94B in FY2025; the 3-year CAGR is 3.69% and 5-year CAGR is 7.75%. EPS growth is 18.09% year over year with a 3-year CAGR of 11.55%. Operating margin is 29.63%, up 1.67% over a year.

Returns and balance sheet

ROIC is 18.53% (67th percentile, median 15.32%) and ROE is 44.23%. Net debt to EBITDA is 1.37× and interest coverage is 9.49×. Debt to equity is 1.20×, near the 1.22× sector median.

Cash returned

The dividend has grown for 23 years, now 0.53 per quarter versus 0.51 a year earlier. FY2025 dividends were 8.78B against buybacks of 746.0M. FY2025 free cash flow was 5.30B, though TTM FCF is 14.30B. Shares outstanding changed -0.02% in a year.

Valuation and ownership

Forward P/E of 25.83 is in the 88th percentile, and EV/EBITDA of 21.15× is in the 86th. Consensus EPS is 3.31 for FY1 and 3.53 for FY2. Institutions hold 77.19%, up 3.26% over three months, while insiders sold 6 times.

Swing trader

KO is in an established uptrend above all key averages, but it has pulled back three sessions from the 95.37 high. Momentum is neutral and volatility is low versus peers.

Trend and momentum

Price of 91.18 is above the SMA20 (90.06), SMA50 (89.29) and SMA200 (81.81). The golden cross dated Dec 17, 2025 remains intact. RSI14 is 53, MACD is 1.4 over its signal of 1.25, and ADX14 of 28.88 indicates a firm trend.

Recent sessions and levels

KO peaked at 95.34 close on Oct 22, then fell to 92.71, 92.7 and 91.18. Oct 27 gapped down 2.03%. Resistance is at 95.37; support lies at the SMA20 (90.06), SMA50 (89.29) and 20-day low of 85.13. RSI2 is 13.68.

Volatility and flow

ATR14 is 1.57 (1.73% of price). Relative volume was 1.05×. Relative strength rating is 86, and the 3-month relative strength is -3.20%. Short interest fell 6.73% to 49.6M shares on Oct 15, 2026.

Analyst flow

Reiterations came from Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo on Oct 28, with UBS lifting its target to 106 and Piper Sandler to 102 on Oct 26. No upgrades or downgrades occurred in 30 days. The next ex-dividend date is Dec 1, 2026.

Options

Implied volatility is mid-range and sits slightly below realized volatility. Earnings have just passed, so the front-month event premium is largely gone. Liquidity is strong and flow leans toward calls.

Volatility level

IV30 is 18.87% with an IV rank of 48 and percentile of 49, within a 52-week range of 12.94% to 25.19%. IV30 fell 2.6 points over 20 days. Term structure is in contango, with IV90 at 19.43%.

Implied versus realized

IV/HV30 is 0.95× and the volatility risk premium is -3.4 points (ratio 0.85×), so option premium is not rich relative to realized volatility. HV10D is 27.53% while HV60D is 16.89%. Skew at 25 delta is -1.8 points.

Expected moves and earnings

The 7-day expected move is 2.61% (2.38) and the 30-day is 5.41% (4.93). The implied earnings move was 0.62% against an 8-quarter average of 3.33% and a maximum of 6.44%; the Oct 27 report has already occurred.

Premium yields and liquidity

For the Nov 27, 2026 expiry (31 days), cash-secured put yield is 12.44% annualized and covered call yield is 12.91%; no ex-dividend date falls before expiry. Options liquidity score is 96, put/call volume ratio is 0.58× and volume was 1.39× its 20-day average.

Analysis written October 28, 2026 from Qanvo data as of October 27, 2026. AI-generated, for information only; not investment advice.