Stock reports › US › Financials

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) stock analysis

JPMorgan consolidates near $336 after Q3 miss, 8.38% below its 52-week high, with implied volatility near yearly lows

JPM closed at 335.79 on Oct 27, 2026, trading between its 50-day (344.33) and 200-day (322.56) averages. Q3 EPS of 5.75 missed the 5.93 consensus on Oct 13, yet the stock moved only 0.29%. Forward P/E is 13.14× versus an industry median of 10.96×, while analysts' mean target is 381.50.

  • Price: 335.79
  • Market Cap (USD): $899.45B
  • P/E: 13.63×
  • Fwd P/E: 13.14×
  • Div Yield: 1.83%
  • 1Y Return: 11.77%
  • Next Earnings: Jan 12, 2027
  • Mean Target: 381.50
  • Rating: Strong Buy

Bull case

  • Analysts' mean target of 381.50 from 8 analysts in the last 3 months sits 13.61% above the 335.79 price, and the consensus label is Buy as of Oct 28, 2026.
  • Return on equity is 18.01% (percentile 65 versus a 13.16% sector median), and operating margin of 28.25% is up 2.03% over one year.
  • Trailing EPS growth is 18.08% and the share count fell 3.06% in a year, while dividends have grown for 15 years with a 25.80% payout ratio.

Bear case

  • Q3 FY2026 EPS of 5.75 missed consensus by 3.04% and revenue missed by 2.07%, and the EPS beat streak is 0.
  • Forward P/E of 13.14× is 19.82% above the industry median of 10.96×, while EPSGrowthNextFY of 3.37% is in the 11th percentile of the sector.
  • Price is 8.38% below the 52-week high of 366.50 and 2.48% below the 50-day average; 3-month relative strength is -8.14%.

What to watch

  • Next earnings on Jan 12, 2027 (77 days away, confirmed); consensus EPS is 5.97.
  • 50-day average at 344.33 and 20-day high at 344.40 as overhead resistance; 20-day low of 325.07 and 200-day average of 322.56 as support.
  • 52-week high of 366.50 and 52-week low of 279.10 as the outer range.
  • Short interest, last 25.6M shares (0.96% of float) on Oct 15, 2026, up 6.13%.

General

JPMorgan Chase is a financial holding company with consumer banking, investment banking, commercial banking and asset management segments. Shares are range-bound after a Q3 earnings miss, with valuation at a premium to the industry median. Analysts remain constructive, and volatility is low.

Business and results

The company operates through Consumer and Community Banking, Commercial and Investment Bank, Asset and Wealth Management and Corporate. In fiscal 2025 the Commercial and Investment Bank produced 42.27% of revenue and Consumer and Community Banking 40.97%. TTM revenue is $301.92B and net income is 65.98B.

Valuation

Trailing P/E is 13.63× and forward P/E is 13.14× (based on FY2 consensus, as it is within 120 days of year-end), against an industry median of 10.96×. Price-to-book is 2.42×. The forward P/E sits in the 65th percentile of US Financials.

Market signals

Analysts' consensus label is Buy, with 1 Strong Buy, 31 Buy, 27 Hold and 2 Sell as of Oct 28, 2026. Several firms raised targets on Oct 14, though Goldman Sachs trimmed to 392 from 398 on Oct 13. The stock moved just 0.29% after the Q3 report.

Long-term investor

Growth and returns have been solid, with annual revenue rising from 153.82B in FY2022 to 279.75B in FY2025 and ROE at 18.01%. Capital return is steady through buybacks and dividends. Forward EPS growth of 3.37% is modest and valuation is above the industry median.

Growth and margins

Revenue three-year CAGR is 22.06% and EPS three-year CAGR is 18.31%. Diluted EPS rose from 16.23 in FY2023 to 20.02 in FY2025. Operating margin is 28.25%, in the 74th percentile of the sector. Q3 FY2026 revenue was 76.19B versus 71.90B a year earlier.

Balance sheet and capital return

Total assets are 5.09T against equity of 372.37B, with total debt of 1.23T and debt-to-equity of 3.32×. FY2025 buybacks were 34.59B and dividends 16.62B. The quarterly dividend rose to 1.65 from 1.50, and the yield is 1.83%.

Valuation, estimates and ownership

Forward P/E of 13.14× compares with a 10.93× sector median; PEG is 3.90×. FY1 EPS consensus is 24.73 and FY2 is 25.56. Institutions hold 71.33%. Insiders recorded 2 sales and no buys in 90 days, with net value of -1.8M.

Swing trader

The trend is mixed: price is above the 20-day (333.61) and 200-day (322.56) averages but below the 50-day (344.33). Momentum is neutral with RSI14 at 47.79 and ADX14 at 15.57, signalling a weak trend. Range trading between roughly 325 and 344 has persisted since the Q3 report.

Trend and momentum

MACD is -2.24 versus a signal of -3.04, with a histogram of 0.8, showing momentum improving. RSI2 is 70.71 and Stochastic K is 54.13. The 50-day average is 6.75% above the 200-day, with the golden cross dated Jun 12, 2026. Three-month relative strength is -8.14%.

Levels and recent sessions

The 20-day high is 344.40 and the low 325.07; the 52-week high is 366.50. Closes over the last 15 sessions ranged from 329.58 to 339.72. Oct 27 closed at 335.79 on volume of 4.7M, 0.60× relative volume. ATR14 is 6.04 (1.80%).

Catalysts and positioning

No earnings fall in the window until Jan 12, 2027. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 6, 2026. Short interest is 0.96% of float with 3.31 days to cover. Recent analyst actions were reiterations from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Goldman Sachs and Barclays.

Options

Implied volatility is low in absolute and relative terms, with IV30 at 20.91% and a 52-week IV rank of 13. Implied volatility sits above realized, so premium is rich relative to recent movement. Liquidity is strong.

Volatility level and term structure

IV30 is 20.91% versus a 52-week range of 18.40% to 37.17%; IV percentile is 8. IV60 is 22.37% and IV90 is 23.52%, a contango structure with the 30-to-90 slope at +2.6 pts. IV30 has fallen 6.4 pts over 20 days. Skew at 25-delta is -0.7 pts.

Implied versus realized

HV30D is 16.86% and HV20D is 13.45%. IV30 exceeds HV30 by 4.1 pts (1.24×), and the volatility risk premium is +7.5 pts (1.56×). The expected 30-day move is 6.00% (20.13), and the 7-day move is 2.90% (9.72).

Earnings and premium yields

The 8-quarter average earnings move is 2.32% with a maximum of 5.12%; the last implied move was 3.72% versus an actual 0.29%. Earnings fall outside the Nov 27, 2026 expiry. The 30-delta put (325.00) yields 13.48% annualized and the 30-delta call (350.00) 11.22%.

Liquidity and flow

Options liquidity score is 96 with 628.8K open interest. Volume of 44.1K is 0.66× the 20-day average. Put/call volume ratio is 0.39× while open interest ratio is 1.11×. Net call premium was $74.3M on the day.

Analysis written October 28, 2026 from Qanvo data as of October 27, 2026. AI-generated, for information only; not investment advice.