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HSBC Holdings plc (HSBA) stock analysis

HSBC falls 5.42% on an earnings miss, leaving shares oversold and 21.89% below the 52-week high

HSBC Holdings shares closed at 1,291.40 on Oct 27, 2026, down 5.42% after results that missed on EPS (-6.87% surprise) and revenue (-1.60%). The stock is down 14.84% over a month and trades at a forward P/E of 9.13×, below the industry median of 10.96×. Analysts' consensus is Hold.

  • Price: 1,291.40
  • Market Cap (USD): $293.68B
  • P/E: 11.52×
  • Fwd P/E: 9.13×
  • Div Yield: 1.73%
  • 1Y Return: 22.97%
  • Rating: Hold

Bull case

  • Forward P/E is 9.13×, 16.76% below the industry median of 10.96×, and in the 22nd percentile of GB financials.
  • Quarterly net income rose to 7.91B in Q2 FY2026 from 4.73B in Q2 FY2025, with operating margin up 5.84% over one year to 24.99%.
  • Next year's EPS growth is estimated at 11.32%, with consensus EPS of 127.12 for this fiscal year and 141.52 for next year; shares outstanding fell 2.68% over a year.

Bear case

  • The Oct 27, 2026 report missed EPS consensus (0.3092 vs 0.332, -6.87%) and revenue by 1.60%; the stock fell 5.42% on 1.77× relative volume.
  • Momentum has broken: 3-month return is -16.57%, in the 3rd percentile of peers, and price is below its 20-, 50- and 200-day averages.
  • Trailing revenue growth is -3.02% year over year (11th percentile of peers), ROE is 13.10% against a sector median of 15.12%, and Beta1Y is 1.66.

What to watch

  • Ex-dividend date Nov 5, 2026 for a 7.51 quarterly dividend, payable Dec 17, 2026.
  • The 52-week low of 1,027.80 and the 20-day low of 1,263.60, which was set on Oct 27, 2026.
  • The 200-day average at 1,387.60 and the 20-day average at 1,408.99 as overhead resistance levels.
  • Analyst reactions after Citigroup's Neutral reiteration on Oct 28, 2026, and any rating changes (none in the last 30 days).

General

HSBC is a large multinational bank with Wealth and Personal Banking, Commercial Banking and Global Banking and Markets divisions. Shares sold off sharply after a results miss, but valuation is below industry and sector medians. Analysts rate the stock Hold.

Business and results

HSBC serves individuals, businesses and institutions globally, with 209,000 employees. Q2 FY2026 net income was 7.91B on revenue of 34.16B. The latest report on Oct 27, 2026 missed EPS consensus by 6.87% and revenue by 1.60%, ending a run where the prior report on Aug 4, 2026 had beaten EPS by 1.37%.

Valuation

The forward P/E is 9.13×, against an industry median of 10.96× and a sector median of 11.00×. Price to book is 1.49× and the dividend yield is 1.73%, in the 33rd percentile of peers. The PEG ratio is 0.81×.

Market and analyst signals

The stock fell 5.42% to 1,291.40, is 21.89% below its 52-week high of 1,653.40 and still up 22.97% over one year. The consensus rating is Hold: 5 Buy, 10 Hold and 2 Sell. Citigroup reiterated Neutral on Oct 28, 2026.

Long-term investor

Earnings have grown over several years, and the bank returns capital through dividends and buybacks. Valuation is modest relative to peers, though returns are not above the sector median and the latest report was a miss.

Growth and margins

Annual revenue went from 63.28B in FY2020 to 134.10B in FY2025, while net income was 22.29B in FY2025 against 23.98B in FY2024. EPS growth over three years is a 19.22% annual rate. Operating margin is 24.99%, in the 63rd percentile of peers.

Returns and balance sheet

ROE is 13.10%, below the sector median of 15.12%, and ROA is 0.77%. Debt to equity is 0.68× against a median of 0.75×. Total equity at Jun 30, 2026 was 196.68B against total assets of 3.44T. The Piotroski F-score is 6.

Capital returns and valuation

In FY2025 HSBC repurchased 12.66B of stock and paid 11.58B in dividends. Diluted shares fell to 17.55B from 20.24B in FY2020. The payout ratio is 21.37% and three-year dividend growth is 33.23%. Forward P/E is 9.13× versus the 11.00× sector median.

Estimates and insiders

Consensus EPS is 127.12 for this fiscal year and 141.52 for next year, with 9 analysts contributing. No insider buys or sells were recorded in the last 90 days, and revision data is not provided.

Swing trader

The stock is in a sharp downtrend, deeply oversold after a gap-down on earnings. It sits below all key averages with a strong trend reading, so a rebound and further weakness are both plausible.

Trend and momentum

Price of 1,291.40 is 8.35% below the 20-day average, 12.76% below the 50-day average and 6.93% below the 200-day average. RSI14 is 26.69 and RSI2 is 8.45. MACD is -40.34, below its signal at -32.48, and ADX14 is 33.34, indicating a strong trend.

Recent sessions and levels

Oct 27, 2026 gapped down 4.72% on 38.2M shares and set a new 20-day low of 1,263.60. The stock closed Oct 7 at 1,408 after a drop from 1,457 and has stepped lower since. Resistance sits near the 20-day average at 1,408.99 and 200-day average at 1,387.60; the lower Bollinger band is 1,319.16.

Volatility and flows

ATR14 is 34.94, or 2.71% of price. HV20D is 33.30%, in the high range for peers. The relative strength rating is 51. Analyst flow shows no upgrades or downgrades in 30 days, only reiterations from Citigroup on Oct 28, 2026 and Sep 23, 2026.

Analysis written October 28, 2026 from Qanvo data as of October 27, 2026. AI-generated, for information only; not investment advice.