Stock reports › US › Industrials

GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) stock analysis

GE Vernova trades 25% below its high into earnings, with a rich forward P/E and 41.7% analyst target upside

GE Vernova closed at 895.08 on Oct 27, 2026, up 4.67% on the day but 25.16% below its 52-week high of 1,195.94. Earnings are due Oct 28 before the open, with an implied move of 7.63%. Strong returns on capital and cash flow sit against a forward P/E of 36.63 (on next year's consensus EPS) and consensus EPS that is expected to fall.

  • Price: 895.08
  • Market Cap (USD): $239.88B
  • P/E: 25.17×
  • Fwd P/E: 36.63×
  • Div Yield: 0.22%
  • 1Y Return: 53.16%
  • Next Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
  • Mean Target: 1,268.33
  • Rating: Hold

Bull case

  • Return on invested capital is 50.87%, in the 98th percentile of US Industrials, and free cash flow margin is 30.07% with a free cash flow yield of 5.19%.
  • Latest-quarter revenue growth was 21.87% year over year, and revenue grew 12.96% over the trailing year versus a sector median of 9.13%.
  • Analysts' mean target is 1,268.33, which is 41.70% above the last price. Of the 29 ratings, 22 are Buy and none are Sell, with Oppenheimer and Bernstein reiterating Outperform on Oct 28, 2026.

Bear case

  • Forward P/E is 36.63 on next year's consensus EPS versus an industry median of 18.18, and EPS growth for next fiscal year is -19.50%, in the 1st percentile of the sector.
  • Operating margin is 4.35% (4th percentile) and gross margin is 20.21% (15th percentile), thin for a company priced at 5.80 times sales.
  • The stock sits below its 20-, 50- and 200-day averages, with a 6-month return of -17.80% and a 1-year maximum drawdown of -30.63%. Beta is 2.1.

What to watch

  • Q3 earnings on Oct 28, 2026 before the open: EPS consensus 4.03, implied move 7.63%.
  • The 20-day high of 1,052.78 and the 20-day low of 796.42 mark the recent trading range.
  • The 50-day average at 941.69 and the 200-day average at 941.20 sit about 5% above the price.
  • The 52-week high of 1,195.94 and the 52-week low of 530.16.

General

GE Vernova is an energy company with Power, Wind and Electrification divisions. Fundamentals have improved sharply, but the shares have pulled back from their high and are priced at a premium. Earnings on Oct 28, 2026 are the near-term test.

Business and trend

The company generates electricity and supplies grid, power conversion, solar and storage equipment. Trailing revenue is $41.37B, with latest-quarter growth of 21.87% year over year. Fiscal 2025 revenue was 38.07B, up from 33.24B in 2023, while operating income moved from a loss of 923.0M to 1.39B.

Valuation

Forward P/E is 36.63 on next year's consensus EPS, in the 92nd percentile of US Industrials against a sector median of 21.40. Trailing P/E is 25.17, below the sector median of 28.79. Enterprise value to EBITDA is 25.41, in the 88th percentile.

Market and analyst signals

The consensus label is Buy, with 22 Buy and 7 Hold ratings. The mean target is 1,268.33. Goldman Sachs upgraded to Market Outperform on Sep 14, 2026, while GLJ Research initiated with a Sell the same day. The stock's 1-year return of 53.16% contrasts with a 1-month return of -5.76%.

Long-term investor

The multi-year turnaround from losses to profits is clear, with high returns on capital and a net cash balance sheet. The question is durability: consensus EPS declines next year and the valuation is above peers.

Growth and margins

Revenue rose from 29.65B in fiscal 2022 to 38.07B in fiscal 2025, and the 3-year compound growth rate is 8.68%. Operating income swung from -2.88B in 2022 to 1.39B in 2025. Operating margin is 4.35%, up 2.48% over the year, but is still in the 4th percentile of the sector.

Returns and balance sheet

ROIC is 50.87% and ROE is 91.48%, though equity of 11.96B is small. Cash is 13.12B against debt of 3.96B, a net cash position of 9.16B. The current ratio is 0.85, and the Piotroski F-score is 7. Net income of 9.53B includes items that outpace operating income of 1.80B.

Capital return and ownership

Fiscal 2025 buybacks were 3.32B and dividends 275.0M. Shares outstanding fell 2.17% over the year. The dividend yield is 0.22% with a 5.74% payout ratio. Institutional ownership is 79.67%, up 4.53% over three months. No insider buys or sells were recorded in the last 90 days.

Swing trader

The shares are in a pullback below all key averages, with MACD negative and ADX at 20.44 showing no strong trend. A 4.67% bounce on Oct 27 came before an earnings event with a 7.63% implied move.

Trend and momentum

The price of 895.08 is 5.05% below the 20-day average (942.73), 4.95% below the 50-day (941.69) and 4.90% below the 200-day (941.20). RSI is 45.08, MACD is -27.12 against a signal of -15.88, and ADX is 20.44. The relative strength rating is 84.

Recent sessions and levels

The stock fell from 1,004.04 on Oct 13 to a low of 796.42 on Oct 23, then closed at 895.08 on Oct 27 on 3.4M shares, 1.32 times relative volume. The 20-day range is 796.42 to 1,052.78, and the Bollinger bands run 820.20 to 1,065.26. ATR is 46.10, or 5.15% of price.

Catalysts and positioning

Earnings land Oct 28, 2026 before the open, and the last report on Jul 22, 2026 produced a -4.41% move. The ex-dividend date was Oct 27, 2026. Short interest was 7.4M shares, or 2.76% of float, on Oct 15, 2026, with 3.26 days to cover. Recent analyst actions were mainly reiterations.

Options

Implied volatility is moderate within its yearly range, with a backwardated term structure ahead of earnings. Implied volatility is roughly in line with recent realized volatility, and liquidity is strong.

Volatility level and term structure

IV30 is 52.67%, with an IV rank of 35 and an IV percentile of 64 against a 52-week range of 41.79% to 73.17%. IV60 is 49.23% and IV90 is 48.50%, so the term structure is in backwardation, reflecting the near-term earnings event.

Implied versus realized

IV30 is 1.02 times 30-day historical volatility of 51.79%. Against 20-day realized volatility of 60.75% and 10-day of 79.36%, implied volatility is below recent realized readings. The volatility risk premium is -8.1 points. The 25-delta skew is +2.1 points.

Earnings move and premium yields

The implied earnings move is 7.63% versus an eight-quarter average of 7.81% and a maximum of 15.96%. The 30-day expected move is 15.10%. The 30-delta put at 840.00 pays 67.67, a 94.85% annualized yield, and the 30-delta call at 980.00 pays 23.20, a 30.52% annualized yield. The liquidity score is 88.

Analysis written October 28, 2026 from Qanvo data as of October 27, 2026. AI-generated, for information only; not investment advice.