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CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) stock analysis

CrowdStrike near record high after a 128.71% year-to-date run, with a 167.20× forward P/E and negative GAAP profits

CrowdStrike closed at 268.02 on Oct 27, 2026, 6.61% below its 52-week and all-time high of 286.99, after a 128.71% gain year-to-date. Revenue is growing 21.71% year over year with free cash flow of $1.24B, but GAAP operating income is negative and the stock trades above the average analyst target of 247.30. Next earnings are due Dec 1, 2026.

  • Price: 268.02
  • Market Cap (USD): $270.77B
  • Fwd P/E: 167.20×
  • Div Yield: 0.00%
  • 1Y Return: 103.31%
  • Next Earnings: Dec 1, 2026
  • Mean Target: 247.30
  • Rating: Strong Buy

Bull case

  • Revenue grew 21.71% year over year (23.32% in the latest quarter), with 32 straight quarters of revenue increases and a 5-year revenue CAGR of 40.64%.
  • Free cash flow was 1.24B over the trailing twelve months, a 25.76% margin, and cash of 5.23B far exceeds total debt of 820.1M.
  • Momentum is strong: the relative strength rating is 98, price is 62.34% above the 200-day average of 165.10, and several firms raised targets in October, including Wells Fargo to 300 and UBS to 310.

Bear case

  • Valuation is stretched: forward P/E is 167.20× against an industry median of 19.31×, and price-to-sales is 56.27×, in the 98th percentile of US Technology.
  • GAAP profitability is negative: operating margin is -6.10%, net income is -162.5M, and operating margin fell 3.05% over the past year.
  • The price of 268.02 is above the mean analyst target of 247.30 (-7.73% implied), and insiders recorded 712 sales and no buys in 90 days, a net -457.6M.

What to watch

  • Next earnings on Dec 1, 2026 (confirmed); the last report on Aug 26, 2026 was followed by a 22.97% move.
  • The 52-week and all-time high of 286.99, 6.61% above the current price.
  • The 20-day average at 256.08 and the 20-day low of 221.36 as nearby support reference points.
  • Short interest updates after the Oct 15, 2026 reading of 24.0M shares (2.38% of float).

General

CrowdStrike sells cloud-delivered cybersecurity and is growing revenue at 21.71% with strong free cash flow, but GAAP earnings are negative. The stock has more than doubled this year and trades at a rich multiple above the average analyst target.

The business

CrowdStrike provides cybersecurity across endpoints, cloud workloads, identity and data, plus threat intelligence, managed services and log management. Subscriptions are 94.86% of fiscal 2026 revenue, and the United States is 66.85%. Trailing revenue is $4.81B with a gross margin of 74.67%.

Valuation in context

Forward P/E is 167.20× on next year's consensus EPS of 1.60, versus a sector median of 21.60× (97th percentile). Price-to-sales is 56.27× versus a sector median of 6.86×. The free cash flow yield is 0.46%, in the 11th percentile.

Analysts and market signals

As of Oct 28, 2026, 51 analysts rate it Buy, 14 Hold and 2 Sell, with a 3-month mean target of 247.67. There were no upgrades or downgrades in 30 days. Short interest is low at 2.38% of float, and relative strength is in the 93rd percentile of the sector.

Long-term investor

Growth has been durable and cash generation is strong with a net cash balance sheet. Returns on capital and GAAP margins are weak, and the valuation already prices in significant growth.

Growth durability

Annual revenue rose from 874.4M in fiscal 2021 to 4.81B in fiscal 2026. Quarterly revenue climbed from 921.0M in Q1 FY2025 to 1.31B in Q4 FY2026. Next year's consensus EPS growth is 27.87%, in the 68th percentile of the sector.

Margins and returns

Operating income was -293.3M in fiscal 2026 versus -120.4M in fiscal 2025. ROE is -4.22% and ROIC is -1,263.22%, both near the bottom of the sector. Free cash flow of 1.31B in fiscal 2026 remains well above reported net income.

Balance sheet and capital return

Cash is 5.23B against debt of 820.1M, giving net debt of -4.41B and a debt-to-equity of 0.19×. No buybacks or dividends were recorded, and shares outstanding rose 4.54% over one year.

Valuation and insiders

Forward P/E of 167.20× compares with the industry median of 19.31×. Insiders sold 712 times in 90 days for a net -457.6M, including CFO Burt Podbere on Sep 24, 2026. Institutional ownership is 76.81%, up 6.50% over three months.

Swing trader

The trend is firmly up, with price above all key averages and a relative strength rating of 98. After a volatile October pullback and rebound, the stock sits below its record high and above the average analyst target.

Trend and momentum

Price of 268.02 is above the 20-day (256.08), 50-day (236.78) and 200-day (165.10) averages. RSI is 60.35, MACD is 2.72 versus its signal of 2.80, and ADX is 19.84, which suggests a modest trend strength. The 5-day return is 17.88%.

Recent sessions and levels

The stock fell to 221.36 on Oct 20, then rallied, closing at 257.57 on Oct 23 on 13.4M shares and 261.83 on Oct 26. Oct 27 closed at 268.02 on lighter volume of 7.3M. The high of 286.99 is 6.61% above; the Bollinger upper band is 288.11.

Volatility and risk

ATR is 12.57, or 4.69% of price, and 20-day historical volatility is 57.68%. Beta over one year is 1.52. Wide daily ranges, such as the 224.60 to 248.00 range on Oct 16, mean moves can be large.

Catalysts and positioning

Earnings fall on Dec 1, 2026, 35 days away. Short interest was 24.0M shares (2.38% of float) on Oct 15, 2026, down 8.28%. Recent analyst actions are mostly reiterations plus target raises, with no upgrades or downgrades in 30 days.

Options

Implied volatility is elevated, at 56.59% for 30 days and an IV rank of 80, and sits modestly above realized volatility. Liquidity is strong and the term structure is in contango, with call premium dominating recent flow.

Volatility level

30-day implied volatility is 56.59%, with 60-day at 61.58% and 90-day at 60.42%. IV rank is 80 and IV percentile is 51. Compared with 30-day historical volatility of 53.41%, the ratio is 1.06×, so premium is only slightly above realized volatility.

Term structure and skew

The term structure is in contango, with 90-day implied volatility 3.8 points above 30-day. The 25-delta skew is +2.7 points. Implied volatility is in the 92nd percentile of the sector by rank.

Expected moves and earnings

The 7-day expected move is 7.84% (21.00) and the 30-day is 16.22% (43.48). The Nov 27, 2026 expiry falls before the Dec 1 earnings date. Past earnings moves averaged 9.84% over four quarters, with a maximum of 22.97% over eight.

Premium yields and liquidity

For the Nov 27 expiry (31 days), the 30-delta put at 250.00 pays 9.95, an annualized 46.86% cash-secured yield. The 30-delta call at 295.00 pays 8.97, a 39.41% annualized covered-call yield. Liquidity score is 100, with open interest of 1.2M and a put/call volume ratio of 0.86×.

Analysis written October 28, 2026 from Qanvo data as of October 27, 2026. AI-generated, for information only; not investment advice.