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Amgen Inc. (AMGN) stock analysis

Amgen near all-time high at 447.95 ahead of Nov 3 earnings, with price above analyst mean target

Amgen closed at 447.95 on Oct 27, 2026, 0.67% below its all-time high of 450.98, with a 36.86% year-to-date return. Earnings are due Nov 3 after the close, and the stock trades above the analyst mean target of 407.26. Fundamentals show double-digit margin gains alongside high leverage and modest expected EPS growth.

  • Price: 447.95
  • Market Cap (USD): $241.89B
  • P/E: 27.67×
  • Fwd P/E: 18.28×
  • Div Yield: 2.22%
  • 1Y Return: 53.53%
  • Next Earnings: Nov 3, 2026
  • Mean Target: 407.26
  • Rating: Hold

Bull case

  • Revenue grew 9.23% year over year and operating margin reached 33.18%, in the 92nd percentile of US Healthcare, with a 9.74% gain over the past year.
  • EPS has beaten consensus for 8 straight quarters; the Aug 4, 2026 report beat by 11.92% on EPS and 6.66% on revenue.
  • Trend is strong: price is 20.16% above the 200-day average of 372.79, the 50-day average is above the 200-day, and the relative strength rating is 92.

Bear case

  • Price of 447.95 sits 9.08% above the analyst mean target of 407.26, and the consensus label is Hold on a rating score of 2.67.
  • Debt to equity is 4.90x (98th percentile of the sector) and interest coverage is 4.74x, with net debt of 43.31B.
  • Consensus EPS growth for next year is 6.27%, in the 25th percentile of the sector, and the PEG ratio is 2.92x.

What to watch

  • Third-quarter earnings on Nov 3, 2026 after the close; consensus EPS is 5.79 and the options-implied move is 5.26%.
  • The all-time and 52-week high of 450.98 (set 3 days ago) versus the 20-day average at 423.86.
  • The 200-day average at 372.79 and the 50-day average at 418.42 as trend support.
  • Short interest, last 13.4M shares (2.48% of float) as of Oct 15, 2026.

General

Amgen is a biotechnology company that discovers, develops, manufactures and markets human therapeutics. The stock has rallied strongly and sits near its all-time high, while valuation is above peers and analysts are split. Earnings on Nov 3 are the next test.

Business momentum

Trailing revenue is $38.12B, up 9.23% year over year, and the latest quarter grew 9.68%. Quarterly EPS growth was 64.91%. The company earns a 33.18% operating margin and 26.69% free cash flow margin. In fiscal 2025, the United States accounted for 71.89% of revenue.

Valuation in context

Forward P/E is 18.28 on next year's consensus EPS, versus an industry median of 15.05 and a sector median of 17.62 (55th percentile). Trailing P/E is 27.67. The free cash flow yield is 4.21% and the dividend yield is 2.22%, in the 83rd percentile of the sector.

Analysts and market signals

Of the analysts counted on Oct 28, 22 rate Buy, 16 Hold and 3 Sell, while the mean target is 407.26 from 27 targets. HSBC and BMO Capital downgraded in September. Oppenheimer reiterated Outperform with a 480 target on Oct 23. The stock returned 53.53% over one year.

Long-term investor

Amgen combines high margins and returns with a leveraged balance sheet and moderate forward growth. Dividends are rising, but buybacks have been minimal recently. Valuation is close to sector medians while consensus growth is below them.

Growth and margins

Revenue rose from 25.42B in fiscal 2020 to 36.74B in fiscal 2025, a 5-year CAGR of 7.64% and a 3-year CAGR of 11.76%. Gross margin is 72.65% and operating margin improved 9.74% over the year. ROIC is 18.17% (72nd percentile) and ROE is 91.47%, inflated by thin equity of 11.69B.

Balance sheet and cash returns

Total debt is 57.30B against 13.99B cash, and net debt to EBITDA is 2.46x. The Altman Z-score is 2.36 and the Piotroski score is 8. Dividends paid were 5.12B in fiscal 2025 with 14 years of dividend growth and a payout ratio of 61.78%. Stock repurchased was 0.00 in 2025.

Valuation, estimates and ownership

Forward P/E is 18.28 and the PEG is 2.92. Consensus EPS is 23.05 for this fiscal year and 24.50 for next. Institutions own 85.56%, with ownership up 4.97% over three months. Insiders made 4 sells and no buys in 90 days, a net value of -2.5M.

Swing trader

The trend is firmly up, with price above all key averages and a 20-day high set on Oct 22. Momentum is strong but short-term readings are stretched, and earnings on Nov 3 fall inside a swing window.

Trend and momentum

Price of 447.95 is 5.68% above the 20-day average (423.86), 7.06% above the 50-day (418.42) and 20.16% above the 200-day (372.79). RSI is 64.54, MACD 9.91 above its signal of 7.37, ADX 28.92, and stochastic K 94.05. The relative strength rating is 92.

Levels and recent sessions

The 52-week and all-time high is 450.98, hit intraday on Oct 22. The 20-day low is 396.01 and the upper Bollinger band is 454.35. Recent closes ran 439.26, 444.63 and 447.95, the last on 1.7M shares, 0.60x relative volume. The 14-day ATR is 10.49 (2.34%).

Catalysts and positioning

Earnings on Nov 3 after the close are the key event; the last report moved the stock 7.64%. No upgrades or downgrades occurred in the last 30 days, though Barclays raised its target to 400 on Oct 21. Short interest was 13.4M shares (2.48% of float) on Oct 15, down 4.63%.

Options

Implied volatility is elevated versus the past year and above realized volatility, so premium is rich. The term structure is inverted ahead of earnings, and the skew favors puts. Liquidity is solid.

Volatility level

30-day implied volatility is 33.30%, with an IV rank of 69 and IV percentile of 89 against a 52-week range of 17.89% to 40.20%. It is up 11.4 points over 20 days. 30-day historical volatility is 27.29%, so implied runs 1.22x realized, a volatility risk premium of +4.7 points.

Term structure and skew

The term structure is in backwardation, with the 30-day implied volatility 3.1 points above the 90-day (30.19%), consistent with the earnings event inside the window. The 25-delta skew is +8.4 points, meaning downside puts are priced richer than calls. The expected 30-day move is 9.55%.

Earnings move and premium

The options-implied earnings move is 5.26% versus an 8-quarter average actual move of 5.15% and a maximum of 7.95%. Average implied volatility crush has been 23.58%. A 30-delta put (430.00 strike) yields 28.72% annualized and a 30-delta call (475.00) 19.45%. The options liquidity score is 82, although ATM open interest is just 10.

Analysis written October 28, 2026 from Qanvo data as of October 27, 2026. AI-generated, for information only; not investment advice.