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Apple Inc. (AAPL) stock analysis

Apple sits 1.32% below a record high into Oct 29 earnings, with consensus target below the price

Apple closed at 347.10 on Oct 27, 2026, 1.32% below its 52-week and all-time high of 351.73, and reports earnings after the close on Oct 29. Revenue grew 14.24% year over year with a 94.52% ROIC, but the forward P/E of 36.17 is nearly double the industry median and the mean analyst target of 325.06 sits below the price.

  • Price: 347.10
  • Market Cap (USD): $5.09T
  • P/E: 39.46×
  • Fwd P/E: 36.17×
  • Div Yield: 0.31%
  • 1Y Return: 32.07%
  • Next Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
  • Mean Target: 325.06
  • Rating: Buy

Bull case

  • Revenue growth was 16.36% year over year in the latest quarter and EPS growth was 28.66%, with free cash flow up 42.11% over the year.
  • Returns are exceptional: ROIC of 94.52% sits in the 92nd percentile of US Technology and operating margin of 33.17% is in the 83rd percentile.
  • The trend is firmly up: price is 17.55% above the 200-day average of 295.28, and the 6-month return of 28.22% comes with a relative strength rating of 89.

Bear case

  • Forward P/E of 36.17 (on next fiscal year's consensus EPS) compares with an industry median of 18.35 and sits in the 83rd percentile of US Technology.
  • The mean analyst target of 325.06 implies -6.35% from the current price, and Loop Capital downgraded from Buy to Hold on Oct 20, 2026.
  • The last earnings reaction on Jul 30, 2026 was -8.66% despite a 6.88% EPS beat, and insiders recorded 31 sales and no buys in the past 90 days (net -95.5M).

What to watch

  • Earnings on Oct 29, 2026 after the close; consensus EPS is 1.99 and the options market implies a 3.34% move.
  • The record high of 351.73 (set 2 days ago) as resistance, and the 20-day low of 325.81 as nearby support.
  • The 20-day average at 340.07 and 50-day average at 331.06 as trend checks.
  • Short interest, last 131.6M shares (0.90% of float) on Oct 15, 2026, up 8.97%.

General

Apple is a consumer electronics and services company whose shares are near a record high ahead of earnings on Oct 29, 2026. Fundamentals are strong, but the valuation is high and analysts' mean target is below the current price.

The business

Per its profile, Apple sells iPhone, Mac and iPad devices, wearables and accessories, plus services such as AppleCare, cloud and the App Store. In fiscal 2025, iPhone was 50.36% of revenue and Services 26.23%. Americas was 42.86% and Greater China 15.47%.

How it is doing

Trailing revenue is $466.82B, up 14.24% year over year, and net income is 128.93B. Operating margin is 33.17%, up 1.31% from a year earlier. The latest quarter (ended Jun 27, 2026) had revenue of 109.42B and EPS of 2.02.

Valuation and sentiment

Trailing P/E is 39.46 and forward P/E is 36.17 on next fiscal year's consensus EPS, against a sector median of 21.60. Analysts rate it Buy (rating score 2.4, 30 analysts), yet the mean target of 325.06 is below the price.

Long-term investor

Apple combines very high returns on capital and large cash returns with a modest balance sheet burden. Longer-run growth has been uneven, with a 3-year revenue CAGR of 1.81%, and the valuation is well above peers.

Growth durability

Revenue rose from 365.82B in fiscal 2021 to 416.16B in fiscal 2025, a 5-year CAGR of 8.68%, while the 3-year CAGR is 1.81%. Recent acceleration is notable: quarterly revenue growth is 16.36% and consensus EPS growth for next fiscal year is 10.93%, in the 23rd percentile of the sector.

Returns and balance sheet

ROIC is 94.52% and ROE is 148.75%. Net debt is 21.91B, or 0.13 times EBITDA, with a current ratio of 1.00. Gross margin of 48.65% is below the sector median of 59.66%, but operating margin is well above it.

Capital return and ownership

Apple repurchased 90.71B of stock and paid 15.42B in dividends in fiscal 2025; shares outstanding fell 1.56% over a year. The dividend yield is 0.31%. Institutions hold 66.49%, but insiders had 31 sales and no buys in 90 days.

Valuation versus peers

Price to free cash flow is 37.22 and FCF yield is 2.69%, near the sector median of 2.86%. Forward P/E sits in the 83rd percentile and the PEG ratio is 3.31, so much future growth appears priced in.

Swing trader

The trend is clearly up, with price above all key averages and 1.32% below its record high. Momentum is positive but not stretched, while earnings on Oct 29 introduce gap risk.

Trend and momentum

Price of 347.10 is above the 20-day (340.07), 50-day (331.06) and 200-day (295.28) averages. RSI is 61.1, the MACD histogram is 0.1 and ADX of 19.93 signals a weak trend strength despite the gain. Relative strength rating is 89.

Recent action and levels

The record high of 351.73 was hit Oct 23, 2026; the stock has since closed between 343.91 and 347.73. Support levels include the 20-day low of 325.81 and the 20-day average. Bollinger upper band is 350.47.

Risk and catalysts

ATR is 6.36 (1.83% of price). Earnings come Oct 29 after the close; the last reaction was -8.66%. Short interest is 0.90% of float. Analyst flow was mixed: one downgrade and one upgrade in 30 days.

Options

Implied volatility is moderate and well above realized volatility, so option premium looks rich versus recent movement. The market prices a 3.34% earnings move, above the historical average.

Volatility level

30-day implied volatility is 26.48%, with a 52-week rank of 57 and range from 17.40% to 33.20%. The term structure is flat (90-day at 25.07%) and 25-delta skew is +4.5 points, showing a modest premium for downside puts.

Implied versus realized

The 30-day historical volatility is 15.55%, so implied is 1.70 times realized, a spread of +10.9 points. This indicates premium is rich relative to recent movement, though a 90-day realized figure of 27.86% shows the earlier period was far more volatile.

Earnings and expected moves

The implied earnings move is 3.34% versus a 2.58% four-quarter average and 8.66% maximum over eight quarters. Average implied volatility crush is 10.17%. The 30-day expected move is 7.59%, and the 30-day expiry of Nov 27 includes earnings.

Premium yields and liquidity

Annualized yield is 20.53% for a cash-secured put near the 30-delta and 18.32% for a covered call at that delta. The put/call volume ratio is 0.79 and the liquidity score is 100, so trading conditions are very liquid.

Analysis written October 28, 2026 from Qanvo data as of October 27, 2026. AI-generated, for information only; not investment advice.