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Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (8306) stock analysis

MUFG pulls back 9.26% in a month after a strong year, with earnings due Nov 13

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group closed at 3,370.00 on Oct 27, 2026, 11.62% below its 52-week high of 3,813.00 but still 35.18% higher year to date. Earnings have grown quickly and the forward P/E of 13.18× sits above the industry median of 10.96×. The next report is due Nov 13, 2026.

  • Price: 3,370.00
  • Market Cap (USD): $237.50B
  • P/E: 15.46×
  • Fwd P/E: 13.18×
  • Div Yield: 2.94%
  • 1Y Return: 47.48%
  • Next Earnings: Nov 13, 2026
  • Rating: Strong Buy

Bull case

  • Net income TTM reached 2.43T and diluted EPS for fiscal 2026 was 212.34, versus 159.47 in fiscal 2025.
  • The company has beaten EPS consensus in its last 5 reported quarters, including a 20.54% surprise on Aug 3, 2026 (71.77 actual versus 59.54 expected).
  • Price is 6.62% above the 200-day average of 3,160.61, and the 1-year return is 47.48%.

Bear case

  • Price is 5.90% below the 50-day average of 3,581.12 and 3.46% below the 20-day average, and the 1-month return is -9.26%.
  • The forward P/E of 13.18× is in the 100th percentile of Japanese financials above $10.00B (sector median 12.69×) and 20.25% above the industry median.
  • Debt to equity is 3.52× against a sector median of 2.47×, and ROA is only 0.57%.

What to watch

  • Earnings on Nov 13, 2026 (confirmed), with next-quarter consensus EPS of 67.10.
  • The 20-day low of 3,190.00 and the 200-day average of 3,160.61 as nearby support levels.
  • The 50-day average of 3,581.12 and the 20-day high of 3,705.00 as upside reference levels.
  • The 52-week high of 3,813.00, which is 11.62% above the current price.

General

MUFG is the holding company for MUFG Bank, with retail, corporate, asset management and global markets operations. Profits have grown sharply and analysts are positive, but the shares have fallen over the past month and trade at a premium to the industry on forward earnings.

Business and results

MUFG provides commercial banking, trust banking and securities services across Japan, the US, Europe and Asia/Oceania. TTM revenue is 13.72T, up 10.42% year on year, and net income TTM is 2.43T. The operating margin is 24.21%, up 3.69% over the past year.

Valuation

The forward P/E is 13.18× versus an industry median of 10.96×, and price to book is 1.68×. The dividend yield is 2.94%, below the sector median of 3.09%. The PEG ratio is 1.26×.

Analysts and market

Nine analysts are included, with a rating label of Strong Buy and no upgrades or downgrades in the last 30 days. Consensus EPS is 255.64 for the current fiscal year and 282.38 for next year. The shares fell 2.83% after the Aug 3 earnings.

Long-term investor

Earnings have compounded quickly, and the company is returning more cash through dividends and buybacks. Returns are solid with ROE at 11.34%, but leverage is high and growth is expected to slow to 10.46% next year.

Growth and returns

Revenue grew at a 3-year CAGR of 16.81% and EPS at a 3-year CAGR of 32.92%. Fiscal 2026 EPS was 212.34 versus 88.05 in fiscal 2022. ROE of 11.34% is in the 68th percentile of peers, above the 10.26% median.

Capital return

Fiscal 2026 dividends paid were 848.40B and buybacks 500.21B. Shares outstanding fell 3.21% over the past year. The payout ratio is 46.61%, dividend growth over 3 years is 34.37%, and the dividend has grown for 8 years.

Balance sheet and valuation

Total assets are 431.73T against equity of 22.27T, typical for a bank but reflected in a 3.52× debt to equity ratio. The forward P/E of 13.18× sits above the industry median, while growth next year is forecast at 10.46%, in the 33rd percentile of peers.

Swing trader

The shares are in a pullback within a longer uptrend: below the 20- and 50-day averages but above the 200-day. Momentum is soft, the trend is weak, and earnings fall within 17 days.

Trend and momentum

Price of 3,370.00 is 3.46% below the 20-day average of 3,490.95, 5.90% below the 50-day and 6.62% above the 200-day. RSI is 42.45, MACD is -74.79 under its signal of -57.33, and ADX is 19.28, indicating a weak trend.

Recent sessions and levels

Shares rebounded 2.00% on Oct 27 on lower volume of 25.7M after an Oct 23 low of 3,190.00 on 56.6M. Resistance sits near the 20-day high of 3,705.00 and the 52-week high of 3,813.00. Support lies at 3,190.00 and the 200-day average.

Volatility and events

ATR is 99.98, or 2.97% of price, and 30-day historical volatility is 33.06%. Earnings on Nov 13 carry a history of moves between -3.17% and 4.10%. No analyst upgrades or downgrades occurred in 30 days.

Analysis written October 28, 2026 from Qanvo data as of October 27, 2026. AI-generated, for information only; not investment advice.