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Toyota Motor Corp. (7203) stock analysis

Toyota trades near book value at 9.83 forward P/E as earnings approach on Nov 5 and margins narrow

Toyota closed at 3,102.00 on Oct 27, 2026, 22.45% below its 4,000.00 52-week high, with a forward P/E of 9.83 (on the FY1 basis shown in the data) against an industry median of 10.28. Revenue is growing, but operating margin is 7.43%, down 2.55% over the past year, and free cash flow is thin. Next earnings are due Nov 5, 2026, before market open.

  • Price: 3,102.00
  • Market Cap (USD): $255.93B
  • P/E: 10.51×
  • Fwd P/E: 9.83×
  • Div Yield: 3.22%
  • 1Y Return: 7.02%
  • Next Earnings: Nov 5, 2026
  • Rating: Hold

Bull case

  • Valuation is low: P/E is 10.51, price-to-book is 1.01 and forward P/E is 9.83, below the industry median forward P/E of 10.28.
  • Earnings have beaten consensus for 8 straight reports; the Aug 4, 2026 EPS of 120.69 beat the 75.3 consensus by 60.28%.
  • Shareholder returns are growing: dividend yield is 3.22% (76th percentile of JP Consumer Discretionary), payout ratio is 33.87% and 3-year dividend growth is 21.47%.

Bear case

  • Profitability is weakening: operating margin is 7.43% (down 2.55% over a year) and ROIC is 4.22%, in the 6th percentile of the peer group versus a median of 10.75%.
  • Leverage is high: net debt to EBITDA is 4.09, debt to equity is 1.08 (88th percentile; peer median 0.27), and the Altman Z-Score is 1.59.
  • TTM free cash flow is 558.38B against capex of 4.91T, a free cash flow margin of 1.10%; EPS growth for the past year is -18.05%.

What to watch

  • Q2 earnings on Nov 5, 2026 (before market open); consensus EPS is 53.05.
  • The 200-day average at 3,159.39, which the price sits 1.82% below; the 20-day high is 3,149.00.
  • The 52-week low of 2,686.00 and the 52-week high of 4,000.00 as outer range markers.
  • Analyst rating changes: there were no upgrades or downgrades in the past 30 days, and the consensus is Hold.

General

Toyota designs, makes and sells vehicles worldwide and also runs a financial services arm. The shares are cheap on earnings and book value, but margins and returns have slipped and leverage is high. Analysts' consensus is Hold ahead of results on Nov 5.

Business

Per the profile, Toyota operates through Automotive, Financial Services and All Other segments, selling cars, SUVs, pickups, minivans, trucks and buses, and developing battery electric vehicles and batteries. It has 367,990 employees. TTM revenue is 50.68T, up 5.51% year over year, though the latest quarter grew 1.89%.

Valuation in context

P/E is 10.51 and forward P/E is 9.83 (FY1 basis), versus an industry median of 10.28. Against JP Consumer Discretionary peers, forward P/E sits in the 0th percentile (median 11.54). Price-to-book is 1.01 and EV/EBITDA is 9.51, in line with the peer median of 9.51.

Analysts and market

Of 19 analysts, 5 rate Buy and 7 Hold as of Oct 28, 2026; the consensus label is Hold with a rating score of 2.58. Consensus EPS is 315.44 for FY1 and 348.91 for FY2. The shares are down 7.57% year to date but up 7.02% over one year.

Long-term investor

Long-run growth has been solid, with a 5-year revenue CAGR of 13.24%, but earnings and returns have fallen back from FY2024. The shares are priced for modest growth, and balance-sheet leverage and low ROIC are the main questions for durability.

Growth and margins

Revenue rose from 27.21T in FY2021 to 50.68T in FY2026. Operating income peaked at 5.35T in FY2024 and was 3.77T in FY2026, with EPS of 295.25 versus 365.94 in FY2024. Consensus EPS growth next fiscal year is 10.61%, in the 0th percentile of peers (median 24.78%).

Returns and balance sheet

ROE is 10.15% (peer median 12.03%) and ROIC is 4.22% (median 10.75%). Total debt is 43.21T against equity of 39.92T; interest coverage is 43.42 and the current ratio is 1.27. The quality score is 31, in the 6th percentile of peers.

Capital returned

FY2026 dividends paid were 1.24T and buybacks were 39.98B, versus 1.18T of buybacks in FY2025. Free cash flow was negative in FY2021 to FY2025 and turned positive at 558.38B in FY2026. The dividend is 100.00 per share TTM, with a 3.22% yield, and shares outstanding changed -0.24% over one year.

Insiders and estimates

Insider activity in the last 180 days consists only of awards dated Oct 23, 2026, and no open-market buys or sells in 90 days. FY2 consensus EPS of 348.91 is above FY1 at 315.44, which implies analysts expect earnings to recover.

Swing trader

The shares have rebounded from early October lows near 2,900 to 3,102.00 and sit above the 20 and 50-day averages but below the 200-day. Momentum is positive, with earnings in 9 days as a major event risk.

Trend and momentum

Price is 3.50% above the 20-day average (2,997.20) and 2.41% above the 50-day (3,028.99), but 1.82% below the 200-day (3,159.39). A death cross occurred on May 27, 2026. RSI14 is 60.66, MACD is 32.5 above its signal of 16.52, and ADX is 25.58.

Recent sessions and levels

The stock rose from 2,900.5 on Oct 7 to 3,117 on Oct 26, then slipped to 3,102.00 on lighter volume of 20.1M (0.85x relative volume). The 20-day high is 3,149.00 and the low is 2,853.00. The upper Bollinger Band is 3,182.71 and the lower is 2,811.69.

Volatility and catalysts

ATR14 is 57.89 (1.87% of price). 20-day historical volatility is 22.12% versus 10-day at 12.13%. Earnings on Nov 5 are before market open; prior moves were -1.65%, -3.63%, 0.62% and -0.51%. No ex-dividend date is upcoming; the last was Sep 29, 2026. Short interest is not available.

Analysis written October 28, 2026 from Qanvo data as of October 27, 2026. AI-generated, for information only; not investment advice.