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Recruit Holdings Co., Ltd. (6098) stock analysis

Recruit Holdings sits 4.27% below its record high after a 130.55% one-year surge, with earnings due Nov 11

Recruit Holdings closed at 18,725.00 on Oct 27, 2026, 4.27% below its all-time high of 19,560.00, after a 130.55% one-year gain. Earnings have beaten consensus for nine straight quarters and returns on capital are very high. The valuation is far above sector medians, and the next report is Nov 11, 2026.

  • Price: 18,725.00
  • Market Cap (USD): $165.15B
  • P/E: 52.50×
  • Div Yield: 0.14%
  • 1Y Return: 130.55%
  • Next Earnings: Nov 11, 2026

Bull case

  • The company has beaten EPS consensus for nine straight quarters; the Aug 7, 2026 report beat by 36.49% on EPS and 6.03% on revenue.
  • Return on invested capital is 49.98% (sector median 9.08%) and operating margin is 17.86%, up 3.05% over the year, with free cash flow of 658.73B.
  • The balance sheet holds net cash (net debt of -539.30B), and shares outstanding fell 5.31% over the past year through buybacks.

Bear case

  • The price-to-earnings ratio is 52.50 against a sector median of 14.95, and price-to-book is 16.48, leaving little valuation cushion if results slow.
  • Revenue growth over the past year is only 3.93% (25th percentile in the sector), and the 3-year revenue CAGR is 2.54%, so the earnings gains rest largely on margins and buybacks.
  • The stock rose 145.57% in six months, with a one-year maximum drawdown of -34.70% and 60-day historical volatility of 57.32%, so sharp reversals have occurred.

What to watch

  • Next earnings on Nov 11, 2026 (confirmed); consensus EPS is 141.77 versus 145.48 reported last quarter.
  • The 52-week and all-time high of 19,560.00, set three days before the latest close.
  • The 20-day average at 17,902.75 and 20-day low of 16,245.00 as nearby support levels.
  • The 50-day average at 17,076.20 and 200-day average at 11,117.51 for trend health.

General

Recruit Holdings is a human resources technology, media and staffing group that has re-rated sharply in 2026 as earnings beat expectations. Profitability and cash generation are strong, but the multiples are far above peers and revenue growth is modest.

The business

Per its profile, Recruit operates three divisions: HR Technology, Media & Solutions, and Staffing. HR Technology provides digital recruitment platforms. Media & Solutions runs digital advertising across sectors such as real estate, beauty, travel and food, and offers cloud software to small and medium-sized businesses. It has 45,586 employees.

Recent performance

Trailing revenue is 3.70T and net income is 496.91B, with EPS of 347.59. Latest-quarter revenue growth was 11.46% year over year, and quarterly EPS growth was 61.00%. Revenue has risen for four straight quarters, and growth has accelerated for three.

Valuation and market signals

The price-to-earnings ratio is 52.50 and enterprise value to EBITDA is 33.29, both in the 100th percentile of Japanese Communication Services peers (medians 14.95 and 8.22). The free cash flow yield is 2.52%, equal to the sector median. The dividend yield is just 0.14%.

Main risks

The share price has more than doubled this year, so expectations are high. Slower revenue growth over three years, a 52.50 trailing earnings multiple and large past drawdowns mean a disappointing report could bring a sharp move; the stock moved 25.85% after the August report.

Long-term investor

Recruit combines very high returns on capital, net cash and aggressive buybacks with earnings growth well ahead of revenue growth. The question for a multi-year owner is whether margins and per-share gains can continue at a 52.50 earnings multiple.

Growth durability

Annual revenue rose from 2.27T in fiscal 2021 to 3.70T in fiscal 2026, a 5-year CAGR of 10.25%, but the 3-year CAGR is only 2.54%. EPS grew from 79.7 to 347.59 over the same span, with a 3-year EPS CAGR of 27.57%. Quarterly revenue has recently picked up.

Margins and returns

Operating margin is 17.86%, up 3.05% from a year earlier; gross margin is 58.51%, down 0.12%. ROIC is 49.98% and ROE is 31.05%, both well above sector medians of 9.08% and 19.07%. The Piotroski F-score is 7.

Balance sheet and capital returns

Cash of 725.58B exceeds total debt of 186.28B, and debt-to-equity is 0.12. In fiscal 2026 the company repurchased 678.75B of stock, after 824.47B in fiscal 2025, and paid 35.35B in dividends. The yield is 0.14% with a 7.34% payout ratio.

Valuation and ownership

Price-to-sales of 7.06 and price-to-book of 16.48 sit at the top of the peer group. The value score is 13 while the quality score is 85. No insider buying or selling was recorded in the last 90 days; institutional data is not provided.

Swing trader

The trend is strongly up, with the price above its 20-, 50- and 200-day averages and a relative strength rating of 98. The stock is consolidating just below its record high ahead of earnings in 15 days.

Trend and momentum

The price of 18,725.00 is 4.59% above the 20-day average (17,902.75), 9.66% above the 50-day (17,076.20) and 68.43% above the 200-day (11,117.51). A golden cross occurred on Jun 4, 2026. RSI is 65.49, MACD is above its signal line, and ADX is 32.5, indicating a firm trend.

Recent sessions

The stock fell 1.73% on Oct 27 on volume of 4.2M, in line with its average (0.98×). It closed at 19,175 on Oct 22 after touching 19,560, the all-time high, then slipped over three sessions. Early October rose from 16,975 to above 19,000.

Levels and risk

Resistance is 19,560.00 and the upper Bollinger band is 19,765.80. Support levels include the 20-day average at 17,902.75, the lower band at 16,039.70, and the 20-day low at 16,245.00. ATR is 553.91, or 2.96% of price.

Catalysts in the window

Earnings on Nov 11, 2026, are confirmed, with consensus EPS of 141.77. The stock moved 25.85% after Aug 7 and 17.25% after May 15. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 29, 2026. Short interest and analyst action data are unavailable.

Analysis written October 28, 2026 from Qanvo data as of October 27, 2026. AI-generated, for information only; not investment advice.